A VoloCity flying taxi by Volocopter is pictured at Pontoise airport in Cormeilles-en-Vexin, near Paris, France, November 10, 2022.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters
A world with flying vehicles, like the 1960s sitcom The Jetsons, might be closer than you think.
Companies across the US, including several startups, are developing electric flying taxis that aim to get cars off the road and take people into the sky.
Specifically, commercial airlines are investing in this type of technology to make trips to and from airports shorter and faster for consumers.
In October, Delta Airlines join the list of airlines backing EV tech startupswith a $60 million investment in Joby Aviation, a company that develops electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, intended to operate as an air taxi service.
In 2021, when Joby announced the launch plan Air taxi like its Uber in 2024, it generated criticism from industry analysts over its likely launch on that date. But Delta’s investment in Joby is a five-year partnership to operate eVTOL exclusively within Delta’s network.
unified airline is also working with a Sweden-based startup, Heart Aerospace, to have Electric planes fly regional routes by 2030, add two eVTOL investment from the airline. One is $15 million with Eve Air Mobility for 200 aircraft and the other is $10 million with Archer Aviation for 100 eVTOL.
American Airlines invested $25 million in Vertical Aerospace, a UK-based company, with an order for 50 aircraft.
Air taxis can hit the market in the 2030s
While major airlines enter agreements with global startups, it’s important to remember that these are conditional. It depends on the certification of these planes and the pace of production by the companies, said Savanthi Syth, executive director of equity research, which includes global airlines and mobility, at. company. Raymond James.
Once these planes are certified and production begins ramping up, Syth says the potential market size largely depends on how close the companies are that can bring eVTOL to consumers.
“Initially, eVTOL was supposed to replace your personal car,” says Syth. “But it will be different for everyone, based on where eVTOL is.”
The companies envision eVTOL using existing infrastructure to operate, such as creating “vertistops,” where planes land on the roofs of buildings in urban areas to charge between short distances or “vertiport”, which uses regional airports to charge between longer distances, about 100+ miles.
If companies can place vertistops and vertiports close to consumers in residential areas, the size of the market could be large, Syth said.
“We think you’ll see a small amount [eVTOL] “Activities begin in the 2025 timeframe, with certifications expected to happen in 2024,” Syth said. “But for you to see a lot of planes flying overhead, that’s probably more likely to happen in the 2030s.”
Airlines benefit from eVTOL investments
While airlines have to face cost and availability challenges Beau Roy, senior managing director of FTI Consulting, which specializes in the aviation industry, said that to become more sustainable, investing in eVTOL is one of the efforts airlines can try to offset. carbon emissions.
“Airlines don’t have many [sustainable] option. The biggest choice is sustainable aviation fuel, but, last year, maybe one in every 1,000 gallons of jet fuel could be found in SAF,” says Roy. compared to other places where they can invest.”
While eVTOL initially offered airlines an addition to their ESG portfolio, they also gave them the ability to take advantage of replacing long car trips with a consumer flight option. use.
“An interesting use case [of eVTOLs] are thinking about getting people out of the car on the 100, 200 or 300 mile trips that we make,” says Roy. mile.”
Not only are airlines removing cars from the road for the sake of the environment, but also opening the door for consumers to pay for a faster and more efficient car alternative, Roy said.
“Airlines are looking at, ‘How do we make cost and ease of use more widely available?’,” says Roy. “If it’s cheap enough and saves enough time, people will change their behavior and move away from cars.”
Roy said flying out of regional airports from smaller towns is not seen much around the country anymore. Most of the traffic happens at major airports, so airlines can take advantage of emerging technology like eVTOL and existing regional airports to grow the industry.
Launched in major cities, but still barriers to clearance
Delta and Joby are planning to have eVTOL hit major cities, like New York City and Los Angeles, in its initial launch.
Ranjan Goswami, Delta’s senior vice president of customer experience design, said the company was targeting NYC and LA because of increased congestion and traffic in these dense urban areas, as well as because of Delta’s prominence in these markets.
“The big cities are where you have the best use cases and the most users [an eVTOL] services,” says Goswami. “Ultimately, it’s also where you have economies of scale to help make costs accessible to more people.”
Goswami says getting to and from the airport is one of the most stressful parts of traveling, and eVTOL will ease that experience.
“We won’t be talking to the market right now about prices, but we believe that needs to be an accessible price point,” said Goswami. “Unlike helicopters, which are very expensive, the goal is to create [eVTOLs] accessible and affordable to the traveling public.”
While Roy says he’s optimistic about seeing eVTOL in the next decade, these air taxis won’t launch as quickly as startups and airlines might hope.
In addition to manufacturing and then certifying these planes, Roy said using existing infrastructure to house the eVTOL was also an obstacle.
If eVTOL were to land on rooftops, there would be a lot of new construction and infrastructure that would convert rooftops into peaks, says Roy. With battery-operated eVTOL, these buildings also have to generate significant power and electricity for the charging stations.
“These planes will operate and the FAA [Federal Aviation Administration] will do their job to make sure they work,” said Roy. “It’s going to take a while to get from where we are today to where we need to be.”
