Guest posts by Willis Eschenbach
Let me start with a quick glance at how mainstream climate scientists think climate works, and then my hypothesis about how climate works.
The central model of modern climate science is that changes in global temperature are a linear function of “forced”, the total energy input to the planet’s surface. This is usually expressed as an equation:
∆T = F
Delta “” means “change in”. lambda”” is a constant called “climate sensitivity”. “F” is the magnitude, in watts per square meter. And “t” is the temperature. So the equation says:
Temperature variation T equals climate sensitivity times the change in forcing ∆F.
I, I think that’s ridiculous. If that were true, the average global temperature would rise and fall like a yo-yo on steroids. But it no. During the entire 20th century, the temperature increased by about 0.2%. Two tenths of one percent. And this happens even though the monthly temperature variation in many locations differs by 30% or more, so it cannot be due to “thermal inertia” as many people claim.
My hypothesis is that this temperature stability is due to the thermoregulatory effect of various types emerging phenomenon. These include tropical cumulus fields, heat storms, dust devils, tornadoes and most relevant to this post… El Nino phenomenon.
The El Nino phenomenon is a curious beast. As the Pacific Ocean becomes hotter off the coast of Peru, the phenomenon is known as an “El Nino” condition. It produces high winds. These winds blow warm equatorial surface waters westward, cooling the ocean surface. This is called the “La Nina” condition. This is an image of a cross section of the ocean looking west from 90° West, off the coast of Peru.
Figure 1. 3-D view of the top 500 meters of the ocean, from 90° West (off the coast of Peru) to 140°E (near mainland Asia). The image on the left shows the El Nino situation, the right image shows the La Nina situation. Color indicates temperature.
In Figure 1, you can see the wind literally taking warm water from the surface and pushing it westwards transparently across the Pacific Ocean. Below are two images showing sea level changes during the El Nino and La Nina periods.
Figure 2. Sea level change in El Nino (upper panel) and La Nina (lower panel)
Once the warm water reaches the western Pacific islands and the Asian mainland, it will hit the mainland and split in half, with part of the warm water heading towards the North Pole and the other towards the South Pole. Figure 3 shows that warmer tropical surface water is being pushed towards the poles.
Figure 3. Sea surface temperature anomalies during the 1997-1998 La Nina.
La Nina winds cool the equatorial Pacific, and the planet, in two ways.
First, as seen in Figure 3, it moves warm water from the tropics toward the poles. There, because the air is drier than in the humid tropics, more radiant heat from the warm water can escape into space.
And second, it exposes a large area of cooler water below the surface (the blue area in Figure 3) into the atmosphere. This cools the atmosphere.
So… if we accept my hypothesis that the El Nino/La Nina change is an emerging phenomenon with a cooling effect on the planet, then an obvious question arises—if the earth is slowly fading warming, will the Pacific Ocean shift towards more El Nino, more La? Nina conditions, or remain unchanged?
Obviously, if my hypothesis is correct, then it will shift to colder La Nina conditions.
How can we measure this? Well, we have some indicators of the state of the Pacific in relation to El Nino.
The oldest of these is the Southern Ocean Index (SOI), which measures the difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The change from El Nino to La Nina conditions affects atmospheric pressure.
Next, we have the NINO34 Indicator. This is a measure of sea surface temperature in the “NINO34” region, which spans from 5°B to 5°S and stretches across the Pacific Ocean from 120°T to 170°T. Niño 3.4 anomalies essentially represent the mean equatorial sea surface temperature of an area spanning the Pacific Ocean from the datum to the coast of South America.
Then there is the Ocean Nino Index (ONI). It uses the same area as the NINO34 Index, but the ONI uses the 3-month average temperature.
Finally, the Multivariable ENSO Index (MEI). (ENSO stands for “Southern Ocean El Nino”). Unlike other variables, it is calculated from five different variables—sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), meridian and zone components of the surface wind, and solar radiation. outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). Because it requires modern data, it can only be calculated after 1979.
To show what is happening with El Nino, I used LOW levels of various indicators. A LOWESS smooth represents the overall trend of a given phenomenon. For example, here is the MEI Indicator with a smooth LOWESS line and a straight line showing the trend of the indicator.
Figure 4. Raw multivariable ENSO indicator, straight and smooth trend line LOW. Positive values are El Nino conditions and negative values are La Nina conditions.
And here is the LOW smoothness and trend of all four El Nino indicators described above. I have “normalized” the indexes, meaning that I have set them all to have a mean (mean) of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
Figure 5. LOWESS smooths out four El Nino indicators, along with their straight line trends. El Nino conditions are more positive, La Nina conditions are more negative.
You can see the peaks representing the great El Ninos around 1997-98 and 2015-16. Recall that under my thermoregulation hypothesis, the Pacific would tend to fall into a more negative La Nina.
And all four indicators, in varying amounts, show this exact result—in response to gradual warming since 1980, we have more planet-cooling La Nina conditions.
QED
Here on the Pacific Coast north of California where I live, La Nina status is often accompanied by a decrease in rainfall. The past two years have been dry. We’ll see what this year brings, but the good news is that two days ago we had a heavy rainfall and the forest around my house was smiling.
Not only that, but more rain is forecast over the weekend. What’s not to like?
My best wishes to everyone,
w.
OTHER NEWS: I’m still suspended from Twitter. Looks like they have to prioritize releasing large accounts from vile despicableAt least that’s how I would do it.
If someone wants to send a tweet to @elonmusk in favor of my release, you can refer to my post titled “Open letter to @elonmusk” in which I discuss issues of free speech and so-called “hate speech”… or else you might want to read the post. These are issues of great importance to everyone both on and off Twitter, especially as Europe’s announcement that we should regulate the unidentifiable category known as “hate speech” seems to as spread to America.
MY REGULAR QUESTION: I can defend my word and I am happy to do so. I cannot defend your understanding of my words. Accordingly, please quote exactly the words you are discussingso that we can all be clear on the subject of your comment.
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