Guardian downgrades global warming panic 1.5C – Sharp drop because of that?

Essay by Eric Worrall

“… The fact is, although not exactly drawn from a hat, the number 1.5C is an arbitrary number. …”

Why we should forget the global warming target of 1.5C

Bill McGuire
Tuesday, September 13, 2022 02.48 AEST

The goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius increase by 2030 is arbitrary and currently unattainable – but stopping every 0.1 degrees Celsius increase can still give us hope

Bill McGuire is Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at UCL

Keeping the average global temperature increase (since pre-industrial times) below 1.5 degrees Celsius is considered by many to be crucial if we are to avoid pervasive, dangerous climate change.

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To have a reasonable chance of keeping this side at 1.5C, emissions must be reduced 45% in less than 90 monthsand I was recorded saying that this is reality is not possible. But it’s even worse than that. It’s totally doable that we will crash through the 1.5C handrail even sooner.

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Maybe we’ve gone too far with this exact increase in temperature. The fact is, although not exactly picked from a hat, the number 1.5C is an arbitrary number. The exact extent to which temperature increases make climate change dangerous is simply not known. Indeed, 33 million people relocated from their home in Pakistan We can rightly say that we have already achieved it. As for the cut-off points, any or all of those flagged in the new study could have occurred at some point below 1.5 degrees Celsius, so we may have crossed one or more points – only time will tell. Also easy, we may need a gain of 1.6C, 1.7C or even higher before we experience the first runaway effects of global heating.

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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/12/global-heating-fighting-degree-target-2030

I like the downgrade above the 1.5C limit – “…the 1.5C figure is an arbitrary number…”.

The reality is that nothing bad will happen when or if we violate 1.5C. So it would be extremely disconcerting for climate warningers if this transgression happens a few years from now, rather than a few decades from now, after they’ve all retired or died some way. safe.