PARIS – President Emmanuel Macron’s ability to run effectively was called into question the following Monday he lost his absolute majority in the lower house in France, with opposition groups threatening to block his legislative program and openly calling for his prime minister’s resignation.
After a nationwide vote on Sunday, Mr Macron’s centrist coalition finished first overall with 245 seats, but it fell far short of the absolute majority it enjoyed in the 577-seat National Assembly during its term. his first, raising fears of a political deadlock.
“Can not overcome!” read front page of Le Parisiena daily newspaper.
Much remained uncertain on the Monday after the election, which created a complex and fragmented political landscape with three main opposition groups: the left-wing coalition, the far-right and the mainstream conservatives. All have won enough seats to thwart Mr. Macron’s legislative agenda, but they are also deeply opposed to each other in a variety of ways, limiting the prospect of a broad, durable anti-Macron coalition. steady.
Yet this is all too clear: After five years of relatively smooth sailing in the National Assembly dominated by his party and its allies, Mr. difficult.
“My biggest fear is that the country will be locked down,” said Olivia Grégoire, a spokesman for Mr. told radio France Inter in Monday. She says an upcoming bill to help French households cope with rising inflation is a priority and will be the first test of the waning majority’s ability to build consensus.
Mr. Macron now faces congressional constraints that he can barely overcome in his first term. For example, his party will not be able to easily overrule opposition amendments, and legislative debates could be much more intense.
“It is like moving from a very strong presidential system to a parliamentary one,” said Chloé Morin, a political scientist at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, a progressive think tank. “It shifts the center of power to Congress.”
However, she added, unlike other European countries, where political parties are used to forge alliances and compromises, “it is not the culture of politicians nor of the French people”.
“We have a vertical culture,” she said, with broad presidential powers, and after five years Mr. Macron’s top-down management styleNone of his opponents showed any interest in working with him.
Instead, Ms Morin predicted months of stalemate in Parliament, which could lead Mr Macron to disband it and call new parliamentary elections next year.
French presidents can rule by decree over a number of issues and they have relatively liberal control over the conduct of foreign policy. But the major domestic overhauls that Mr. Macron has promised in time his re-election campaign this year demanded a bill in Parliament, such as his controversial plan to raise the legal retirement age to 65, from 62, which Mr. Macron has vowed to do by the summer of 2023.
The fate of such bills is now in jeopardy. Mr. Macron will most likely be forced to seek an alliance or forge short-term alliances with opposition forces if he is to push through the legislation. A natural fit would be Les Républicains, the mainstream conservative party that could, at least in theory, support some of Mr. Macron’s pro-business policies.
“It’s not a complete blockade, but a suspended Parliament, adding that Mr Macron” is now completely in the hands of Les Républicains, said Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at the University of Nice. . ”
But leaders from Les Républicains, some of whom worry that a long alliance with Mr Macron will anger their political base, have ruled out a partnership.
“We campaign in the opposition, we are in the opposition and we will remain in the opposition,” Christian Jacob, the party’s chairman, said Sunday night. “Everything is very clear,” he added.
The two largest opposing forces in the National Assembly – a broad coalition of leftist parties, guaranteed 131 seats; and Marine Le Pen’s far-right national elections, which took place in 89 – both promise to challenge Mr. Macron’s government relentlessly.
Representatives of both forces wasted no time on Monday when they called for their resignation Elisabeth BornePrime Minister appointed by Mr. Macron last month.
“The government formed by Emmanuel Macron cannot continue to govern as if nothing has happened,” said Manuel Bompard, a member of the far-left France Unbowed party. told French channel BFMTV in Monday. With 72 seats, France Unbowed, under its leadership, Jean-Luc Mélenchonis the largest force in the left-wing coalition.
Traditionally, French prime ministers would step down even after a successful parliamentary election, only to be immediately reappointed by the president and tasked with aligning the existing cabinet on the sidelines.
It is unclear what Mr Macron, who has not made anything public about the results, will do in the short term. He swore that ministers who lost the race to parliament would have to resign; three fall into that category and will need to be replaced, if Mr. Macron complies. The president may decide to address voter frustration by reshuffle his cabinet more broadly.
Opposition forces are now expected to control key committees, such as the powerful finance committee that oversees the state budget, and fill strategic positions in the National Assembly.
“They can do everything that Emmanuel Macron doesn’t like, that is, force him to make some amendments, force him to participate in debates,” Mr Martigny said.
Mr. Macron also lost key allies who helped him navigate the dangerous new waters of Parliament and manage a resurgent opposition. Richard Ferrand, the speaker of the lower house, and Christophe Castaner, one of Mr. Macron’s top lawmakers there, both lost their seats.
The leftist coalition and Congress both have enough lawmakers to put forward a vote of no confidence, but they would need to rally an absolute majority in Parliament to bring down the government, which is unlikely. may happen at this time.
“Yes, we are asking for everything that an opposition group is entitled to, of course the finance committee, of course the vice president,” Le Pen told reporters on Monday. “Can Emmanuel Macron do what he wants? No, and the more the better.”
Ms Le Pen, who was easily re-elected to her own seat in Parliament, has brought home a record number of lawmakers, now about 10 times more than they were during his previous term. Macron.
That would allow the party to formally form a group known as a parliament, giving Parliament more speech time, as well as specific legislative powers such as the ability to form special committees, continue maintain the party in the political line.
France’s political parties receive public funding based on factors including election results and their seats in Parliament, meaning the National Rally’s dramatic rise will also provide a windfall of wealth. gratifying for a party that has long been in debt.
The party is expected to receive almost 10 million euros, about $10.5 million, in public funding each year, compared with about 5 million euros in the previous term. That amount could eventually be enough to pay off the remaining 9.6 million euros on a loan the National Rally contracted with a Russian bank in 2014, leading to accusations the party has close ties to the Kremlin.
Analysts say the far-right rise is a failure for Mr Macron, who five years ago began his first term by pledging to unite the French so that “there is no excuse to vote for extremists.”
But Ms Morin and Mr Martigny also note that Congress has now given a more accurate picture of the French political landscape, including the emergence of more working-class lawmakers.
“That’s good news,” Mr. Martigny said. “It will force changes in a political culture that is not particularly favorable for congressional debates.”
