Germany’s electricity supply will likely be constrained by the supply gap until 2030, Institute finds – Is it possible to get there?

From NoTricksZone

Via P Gosselin

Energy Institute: Supply gap in the electricity market could happen by 2030

By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated by P. Gosselin)

The Research by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) reads differently from the very optimistic forecasts often read in the media.

With the expansion of renewable energy, the weather dependence of electricity generation in Germany is increasing. A new analysis shows that power supply security this decade is not currently guaranteed in all extreme weather situations. Deciding factors here include the growing demand for electricity due to progressive electrification, the decommissioning of fossil power plants, and the relatively slow expansion of energy. regenerative.

This is the result of a new analysis by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI) on behalf of the Promotion Association of the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne. In the publication ‘Supply Security Analysis to 2030’, a team from EWI looks at the (historical) weather situations where the power supply is guaranteed to be safe at all times and under what circumstances could it be. supply shortages occurred this decade. “

Clearly, scientists don’t think we have as much “stockpile” as activists like Claudia Kemfert often claim. For the study, weather data was obtained over a period of 34 years. That’s the climate in terms of statistics.

An analysis of weather data from 1982 to 2016 shows that supply shortages are likely to occur particularly in weather situations with strong below-average winds in Northern and Central Europe and solar radiation. significantly restricted in Southern Europe. These two weather anomalies occurred in combination, for example, in January 1997 and December 2007 over a period of at least seven days.

For such extreme weather scenarios for power generation, the EWI team analyzed and quantified the potential for supply shortages for the years 2025 to 2030 under different power system development scenarios. In doing so, they looked at different paths to coal phase-out, renewable energy expansion, electricity import and storage capacity, and the extent of electrification between 2025 and 2020. 2030″.

Keyword “vehicle storage”: For nature Air and hydrogen, they also seem to have room for improvement, as reported by Die Welt. According to Muller:

Storage capacity nature Air and hydrogen is not enough, according to the Federal Network Agency. The head of the agency, Klaus Müller, said in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper: “When the immediate crisis is over, Germany should take a hard look at whether we really have storage facilities. stored anywhere we want or not.

In the future, hydrogen will be increasingly needed in addition to natural gas. According to Müller, the development of the hydrogen network must start now. The Federal Network Agency, the government, and many of the city’s utility companies and energy suppliers have plans for this. Germany has an extensive branched gas network that could be used in principle, he said. ‘But it can’t simply be a 1-1 conversion. Natural gas comes out and hydrogen clears, that doesn’t work without any more ads. ‘”


Note from NTZ: Things are going as they are now, the power grid will probably go down soon, and so the government will have to give up the green energy dream sooner or later. And even if the country tries to transition to green/hydrogen energy supplies, it will likely be very expensive and extremely uncompetitive. This will also lead to being forced to wake up from a dream drenched in green energy.


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