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Franklin’s Sick Expedition Contrasts Dr. Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick’s Temperature Reconstruction – Is It Rising With That?


From NoTricksZone

Via P Gosselin above 12. March 2022

Via Die kalte Sonne
(Translated / edited by P. Gosselin)

The theme of “exploring the Earth’s polar regions” became a topic again. This is not only shown through spectacular expeditions such as MOSAIC Expedition 2019, but researchers recently discovered Endurance, the ship of Antarctic explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton. The ship Endurance sank in the Weddell Sea in Antarctica in 1915. The explorer and his crew saved themselves at the time.

Some daring explorers like him have brought considerable knowledge to science. Their achievements cannot be overestimated. (Epic survival story).

Lead poisoning

Unfortunately, the participants Franklin Expedition The year 1845 was completely different. No one survived the search for the Northwest Passage, and only then was the mystery of the expedition’s failure unraveled. One cause for this tragic end is probably lead. In the mid-19th century, food containers were soldered with lead. Sir John Franklin brought a lot of spares, but some of them were in cans. So the members of the expedition also regularly ingest lead. The few documents deposited in metal tubes in particularly prominent landscape installations (e.g. stone pyramids) at the time suggest that lead influenced the crew’s thinking. film making. Sometimes they quickly jot down the wrong things on forms. Nor could it explain the behavior of parts of the crew, who appeared to have returned to ships that had been abandoned. Maybe the leader was influential here.

Extremely cold, cannibalism

Much worse, however, was the climate in the mid-19th century, when explorers began to navigate the sea route from Europe to Asia via the Americas. Franklin, of course, planned to winter in the Arctic and then make his way to the Pacific during the brief Arctic summer. However, the ice did not melt as expected, but contrary to the hopes of Arctic explorers, it actually grew during the summer. As a result, the ships made no progress even during the summer; on the contrary, they drift with the ice in a southeast direction, that is, against their true selves.

In 1845, very cool temperatures were recorded for summer in England. According to these things, it’s about 2 degrees cooler than usual file. The winters of 1846 and 1847 were therefore even colder in England. The summer of 1845 must have been very humid as well. That was the year that potato blight destroyed crops in Ireland, causing famine. The end of Franklin’s expedition was dramatic as there was much to suggest that even cannibalism was practiced in the face of adversity.

Franklin’s Unlucky Times

A program of TerraX or podcasts”Früher war mehr Verbrechen“. There, the expedition and the failure were described in great detail in a three-part broadcast.

(Image: ZDF-Mediathek screenshot)

Franklin’s misfortune was timing. The expedition took place at what is believed to be the coldest time in 2,000 years.

Recently, we Report here about the research of Professor Jørgen Peder Steffensen of the Niels Bohr Institute in Denmark. His research is based on ice cores in Greenland that can map very long timescales. In such cores, the temperature can be read in years. Steffensen even suggested that the end of the Little Ice Age was also the end of the coldest period of the past 10,000 years.

(Image: Screenshot Facebook)

Very different from Dr. Michael Mann .’s Hockey stick

The researcher also interprets his ice cores in such a way that he assumes that the prevailing temperature in Greenland during the Medieval Warm Period (circa 1000) was up to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than today’s values. As a result, his temperature curve looks distinctly different from Michael Mann’s 1999 “hockey stick”, namely more like an accordion.

But around the year 1000, according to Steffensen, the temperature in Greenland was different from how Mann reads. The ice core curve comes from a much higher level. One should remember, however, that Mann means the entire northern hemisphere, while Steffensen assumes only Greenland, only part of it. However, it would be unusual for Greenland to develop completely differently from the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. But it could simply be lots of poor quality verified tree ring data from Mann is a big problem?

However, a big difference in the curves is noticeable. In the case of Mann, the curve decreased only moderately at the end of the Little Ice Age. In the early 1000s until the mid-19th century, it remained fairly stable with only a slight downward trend, in contrast to the curves of the ice core.

Factor of difference 5

In the case of Steffensen, it declined significantly after 1000 with a visible low point in the mid-19th century. The size of the anomaly also varies widely. When the temperature is only about 0.3 degrees Celsius in Mann, it is 1.5 degrees Celsius in Steffensen, where it got cooler from 1000 to mid-19th century. That would be a factor of 5!

Chart: Screenshot Wikipedia. Source: DeWikiMan, Northern Hemisphere temperatures of the last millennium, based on Mann, Bradley, Hughes (1999), CC BY-SA 4.0

The Steffensen curve is clearly more consistent with the tragic events surrounding the Franklin expedition.

Today, the mid-19th century not only marked the end of the Little Ice Age, it also marked the beginning of world industrialization and the beginning of systematic weather recording. These things have existed before a lot. Daniel Fahrenheit invented the mercury thermometer as early as 1714, but recording weather data became much more relevant in the 19th century and measurement networks became more widespread.

It’s just that the cause is also war, people don’t want to be surprised anymore. For example, during a violent storm during the Crimean War of 1854, 38 merchant ships and one French warship were sunk. This was the birth of the national storm warning service and, if you will, of modern meteorology. We should keep this end of the Little Ice Age in mind whenever any claim about temperature developments over the past 150 years is made. As Steffensen says, these things start at a very low point.


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