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Flooding in Pakistan could be worse due to warming – BBC – Flooding because of that?


NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolk

Matt McGrath blames the floods in Pakistan on climate change (though scientists aren’t so sure!):

Scientists say global warming may have played a role in the devastating floods that hit Pakistan.

Researchers from World weather distribution The group argues that climate change could increase rainfall intensity.

However, there was a lot of uncertainty in the results, so the team could not determine the size of the impact.

Scientists believe there is about a 1% chance that such an event will happen in any upcoming year. ..

But it is difficult to assess extreme rainfall events. Pakistan lies at the edge of the monsoon region, where rainfall patterns are highly variable from year to year.

Other complications include the impact of large-scale weather events such as La Niña, which also played a role in the last major flood in Pakistan in 2010.

During this summer’s heaviest 60-day period of rainfall, scientists recorded an increase of about 75% over the Indus River basin, while the heaviest five-day period in Sindh and Balochistan provinces recorded receive an increase of about 50% in rainfall.

The researchers then used climate models to determine the likelihood of these events occurring in a world without warming.

Some models indicate that an increase in rainfall intensity can all be attributed to anthropogenic climate change – however, there are significant uncertainties in the results.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enosystem-62915648

Perhaps McGrath and the “scientists” should be looking at actual data rather than playing with their computer models. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, most of the excess rainfall in August came on 18/19 and 25/26. In fact, 41% of the month’s rainfall fell on these four days:

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/home.htm

The cause of this heavy downpour was simple – two tropical cyclones, which crossed the Bay of Bengal – BOB06 and BOB 07. (In the Indian Ocean, they are classified as “Depressive” and “Depressive.” In Atlantic hurricane terminology, they would be named Tropical Depression and Tropical Cyclone, respectively.)

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/home.htm

Both storms followed identical routes west from Bengal, tracking through Rajahstan, before making landfall in Sindh province, the area hardest hit by the floods:

Unusually, these storms don’t dissipate after making landfall, so they can wreak havoc for days afterward. Pakistan, needless to say, is not immune to tropical cyclones. Last year, Typhoon Tauktae made landfall in this country, but that was in May, not during the monsoon.

But for two storms to strike in the space of a week, in the same location, and in the wettest month of the year is an extremely rare combination of meteorological phenomena.

Pakistan experienced a wetter-than-usual monsoon, thanks to the arrival of La Nina, but those two storms pushed rainfall into record territory, the wettest August since 1961.

Of course, there’s no evidence that tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent or intense in the Indian Ocean, so there’s also no evidence that last month’s rainfall has anything to do with climate change. .

What is important, however, is the annual rainfall chart in Pakistan, published in State of the Pakistan Climate 2021:

Pakistan annual rainfall

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/home.htm

Annual rainfall was clearly much less during the 1960s and 70s, a direct result of global cooling. Those drought years were a disaster for Pakistan, and the country welcomes an increase in rainfall since then, like what it did across the border in India.

Also important is that the 7-year moving average has barely changed since the 1980s, oscillating up and down but with no long-term trend. If global warming is indeed bringing more rainfall, we should expect to see evidence of this in the annual figures.

You won’t hear this from Matt McGrath, or the so-called scientists who write these fraudulent climate distribution studies, such as Friederike Otto:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enosystem-62915648

So, recall what Roger Pielke Jr said about climate distribution:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/image-63.png

Or as Obama’s Climate Scientist, Steve Koonin put it:

“Practitioners argue that event distribution studies are the best climate science can do about connecting weather to changes in climate. But as a physical scientist, I am appalled that such studies are so reliably put out, with much less media coverage. A hallmark of science is that conclusions are tested against observations. But that’s almost impossible for weather attribution studies. It’s like a spiritual advisor who claims he’s the influence that helped you win the lottery – after you’ve won it.


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