The federal government on Friday unveiled vehicle efficiency standards for 2027-2031 that aim to slightly improve the fuel efficiency of the new car and truck fleet.
The final Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) rules, announced Friday by the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), set forth regulatory improvements of 2% annually for passenger cars and 2% annually for light trucks during those model years. .
That’s down significantly from the initially proposed 4% annual increase for trucks and SUVs, which had been held to a lower standard and have become the dominant portion of U.S. vehicle sales. As the International Energy Agency emphasized last week, SUVs emit about 20% more CO2 than carswhether they have electricity or not.
Considering those details, the EPA calculated that its final rule would require 56% electric vehicles by 2032, plus at least 13% hybrid vehicles—and since then, GM has become one of the car manufacturer. plug-in hybrid revivalperhaps leading to one EV deployment is slower. Under the previous, more aggressive scenario for efficient light trucks, the share of electric vehicles would be 67% by 2032.
Lighter on trucks, fewer electric vehicles, and about 38 mpg by 2032
According to the agency, the all-in relaxation means the average real-world fleet performance is about 38 mpg – well down from the 43.5 mpg prescribed by the agency. original CAFE proposal implemented in July 2023.
The 2024-2026 CAFE rules, finalized in 2022, call for sharp increases of 8% in 2024 and 2025 and 10% in 2026, so automakers will essentially have it “easy.” after achieving those 2026 goals. At the end of that period, in 2026, it was predicted that the real-world fleet average would be around 35 mpg, compared to today’s fleet average of around 29 mpg.
Toyota Prius 2024
These fleet rules are one aspect of U.S. vehicle emissions and efficiency standards, which are often established in coordination between these various agencies. They follow EPA rules set in March and follow a familiar framework, dividing vehicle targets into designated “footprints,” as well as passenger cars and light trucks.
Those EPA rules continue avoid direct EV authorization and ramp up more slowly than originally proposed, but as planned, they are largely seen as a win for public health.
Electric vehicles count as 300 mpg gasoline vehicles until 2027
However, on the fleet side of meeting these pollution and efficiency rules, automakers have achieved a major breakthrough that will help them meet those much stronger 2024-2027 standards. , as the Department of Energy revealed in March that it would take another three years to implement each step. Revised Petroleum Equivalency Factor (PEF) — governs how electric vehicles are counted in fleet calculations alongside gasoline models.
GMC Hummer EV
Calculated, that equated a battery-powered vehicle to a gasoline-powered vehicle getting about 300 miles per gallon—allowing automakers until then to produce hundreds of miles at a time. effective. more gasoline cars for every EVand encourage PHEVs. After that three-year period, starting in 2027, electric vehicles will only count the same as 120-mpg gasoline models, significantly reducing the number of low-mileage models each electric vehicle allows.
While the EPA standards may be the most important foundation, the CAFE standards themselves are the final word on the mix of vehicles that will be sold and emphasized during this time period — and possibly think it gives the auto industry more incentive to maintain. shifting its product mix toward heavier, less efficient SUVs instead of passenger cars.
As the Environmental Defense Fund notes, the law requires NHTSA to set standards for the “maximum feasible” average fuel economy that automakers can achieve in a given vehicle model within a certain year. Not all consumer and environmental groups view these rules as meeting that maximum level. Consumer organization Consumer Reports calls them abysmal and says the NHTSA standards “simply check the box for its legal requirements.”
Volkswagen ID.4 2024
Will automakers produce more electric vehicles than needed?
John Bozzella, president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents automaker interests, welcomed the way the NHTSA rule works with the EPA regulation and said S&P Global that “it seems like the left hand knows what the right hand is doing.”
Essentially, this positive review of the rules and trend lines could mean that automakers are feeling confident that this interpretation will allow them to make more gasoline-powered trucks. have higher profits without paying penalties.
In an era where another wave of relevant electric vehicles—perhaps aided by affordability and battery breakthroughs—could catch on a lot faster, there’s an opportunity for automakers to demonstrate proving that the trends of management agencies are wrong.
