Reality on the ground has final began to change the minds of followers of the US Drought.
So far this week, NOAA/U.S. Department of Agriculture employees have experienced severe drought across parts of eastern Washington (orange in the image below right). But this week, they have had only a moderate drought.
This week Last week
Severe drought does not match what has been happening on the ground for a long time. But even moderate drought seems to have problems with cool, wet springs. Specifically, the drought-tracking chart shown above, shows a moderate or unusually dry drought in eastern Washington, do not conform to their own guidelines (picture below).
For example, their own guidelines suggest that moderate drought is associated with a runoff percentage of 11-20% and unusual dryness of 21-30% (50% would be perfectly normal. .. with multiple upper or lower intervals).
What is the current, observed river percentile (see below)? Over 50% in most “arid” areas. There is no evidence of drought … vice versa.
I could provide other parameters, but it is clear that eastern Washington is actually in good shape in terms of humidity.
And not only were we wet, but the temperature was below normal: for for example, Sunday 10-15F lower than usual for most areas. Cold enough, Paradise Ranger Station, about 5000 feet from ASL, has several inches of snow (see below).
The coming week will remain cooler and wetter than usual, with a particular focus on heavier rainfall north of the Rockies (see cumulative rainfall forecast through next Monday morning). Crucially, the most northerly BC and WA will get part of the action.
A major issue keeping our weather wet and cool will be the development of low pressure areas/troughs off our coasts (see map for next Satruday below). Purple indicates much lower pressure/altitude than normal.
