Feeling The Bern – Feeling excited about it?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

A decade ago, I wrote an article titled “Bern pattern puzzle”. It is related to the following question.

Let’s say we have a relatively steady state condition in which the level of CO2 in the atmosphere does not increase or decrease. Something like the situation around 1400 in the data below.

Figure 1. Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere over 1000AD history to date, from 10 ice cores and since 1959, from measurements by the Mauna Loa Observatory (orange). The unit is parts per million by volume (ppmv) of the atmosphere.

Now, let’s say during that time, a volcano blows its top off and releases what we usually call a “metric giant” of CO.₂ into the atmosphere. Over time, that CO pulse₂ will be absorbed by a series of sinks on land and in the ocean, and the status of atmospheric CO₂ will be restored to pre-eruption levels.

The “Bern model” is the model used by the IPCC and various climate models. It has the purpose of calculating how long that CO pulse takes₂ to be reabsorbed by natural sinking. And that’s where things get curious.

First of all, the Bern Model says that 15.2% of that pulse of CO₂ will stay in the air forever. Not 15% of the beats, mind you… 15.2%.

I have never found anyone who can explain this to me. If this is true, it seems to me that each volcanic eruption will result in a new and permanently higher level of atmospheric CO.₂ … But as you can see from Figure 1, that simply didn’t happen.

For further proof that the first statement about the Bern model is false, consider the annual change in CO₂ levels. From a low point around October to a peak around May every year, there is a short and sharp natural pulse of CO.₂ lead to increased CO₂ levels of about 6 parts per million by volume (ppmv). And this is compounded by equal CO sequestration₂ in natural basins such that until October of the following year, CO before that₂ level is restored. If that is not the case, CO₂ The level will be increased every year since forever.

And in that same seven-month period, we now emit a pulse that contains enough CO₂ lead to an increase in CO₂ level is about 1.3 ppmv.

The Bern model says that 15.2% of the 1.3 ppmv CO is caused by humans₂ the pulse stays in the air forever… but the ~6 ppmv pulse disappears very quickly. So how does nature tell the difference?

But that was just the beginning of the oddity. It became more curious. The Bern model says that:

• 25.3% CO₂ pulse attenuates back to its previous steady-state condition at a rate of 0.58% per year
• Another 27.9% of pulses decrease at 5.4% per year, and
• The last 31.6% of the pulse falls back to steady state at 32.2% per year

This leads me to the same problem. How does nature know the difference? How is CO?₂ zoning in nature? What prevents CO . gas?₂ remains in the air from being isolated by rapidly acting CO₂ sank?

There is, however, a more fundamental problem — the Bern model simply doesn’t do a good job of representing reality. We have reasonably good information about CO₂ emissions from 1850, available from Our world in data. And we have reasonably good information about CO in the air₂ concentrations since 1850 from the ice core and Mauna Loa, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1. History of CO in the air₂ from 1850AD to the present, from 10 ice cores and since 1959, from measurements by the Mauna Loa Observatory (orange). The unit is parts per million by volume (ppmv) of the atmosphere.

So I thought I’d take a look at the Bern Model, to see how well it can predict the amount of CO in the air.₂ since 1850 from emissions since 1850. The equation calculated in the UNFCCC paper “Parameters for tuning a simple carbon cycle model“, and also in the caption… bad news.

Figure 3. Actual atmospheric CO2 values ​​and Bern . Model values

No pity… the fact that the result of the Bern Model is much smaller suggests that it is incorrectly pushing most of the effect away into the future.

So, is there a better way? Yes Yes. A better way is to use the standard delay formula:

CO2(t+1) = CO2

where:

t = time
E
Using this formula, I find the time constant tau to be ~49 years.  Here is the result of that calculation.



Figure 4. Actual CO in the atmosphere2 value and value according to the standard hysteresis model
This sets the half-life of a CO . pulse2 into the atmosphere for about 34 years…
Those are my questions and observations about the Bern Model.  I have put the calculations and data in a spreadsheet here.
Now I need to get on the roof and clean the cedar-roofed walls in preparation to spray FlameStop on them… those dry days in California.
My best wishes to all, comments and questions are welcome.
w.
Of course: Just as I won't, I ask that you quote exactly the words you are discussing.  That way, no one's words are misinterpreted.  Well, at least everyone's words.
Equation: As promised …



Late news: Well, I had just finished pressure washing the upper part of my house when my pressure washer died… and although I know you may find this hard to believe, at that point I actually did. say bad words...
Looks like Dr. W. will have to do a forensic exam, to see if I can do the Lazarus procedure on the pressure washer!  @# $% ^ & No. 
But not today… enough.  And at least the pressure washing of the upper part of the house is done, done, done.

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