The provided European weather models were substantially superior to the US weather forecasting systems that predicted the path of Hurricane Ian.
Weather radar image near the time Ian made landfall
west coast of present-day western Florida.
This is a problem I have blogged about and paper about in the past, with the most famous case in the past being Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
And it reflects a decline in US national weather forecasting skills relative to leading international hubs – a situation that is embarrassing for the nation and needs to be remedied.
Let me show you the unfortunate details for Hurricane Ian.
I’ll start with a graphic of forecast tracking error by Professor Brian Tang of the University of Albany (website is here). This figure shows the path error (in km) for different forecast lead times.
The US main global model (GFS) is shown in dark red (AVNO), while the leading weather center in the world (Central Europe) is shown in blue (ECMF) ). High-resolution US hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) in purple and cyan, and official forecasts (with human input!) in black lines.
For short-term forecasts (24 or 48 hours), everyone is on the same page.
But look at the extended forecasts (96 and 120 hours)! OH MY GOD. Central Europe is the clear winner, with about halves of the US global model’s track failure.
Furthermore, it is worrisome that the high-resolution US storm models (HWRF and HMON) have even greater tracking errors.
High resolution doesn’t do you much good if you get the storm in the wrong place!
Let me show you the problem spatially by presenting the tracks of the US and European forecasting teams, with each forecast providing a track of the storm.
Below are the forecasts starting at 0000 UTC September 25 (Saturday at 5 p.m. PDT), with the black lines showing you the average of all forecasts). (image provided by weathernerds.org)
The Central Europe forecast is very good, indicating landfall on the central and southwestern coasts of Florida. South of Tampa. Pretty close to the actual landing location (like the radar image above)
In contrast, the US GFS group has been shifted more westward (that was wrong). More spread (not sure). US projections pose more of a threat to Tampa, as a hurricane making landfall north of Tampa could push water into the bay.
Due to questionable US projections, the media went wild with talk of a catastrophic high tide in Tampa, with calls for the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people. And those down the coast were not warned of a serious threat.
I wish this was an isolated case, but it is not.
Global weather forecasts for the United States are not as good as some of the major international hubs, and the cost to the people of the United States is enormous (you can imagine the cost of all the evacuations in Tampa, for example). ).
The US has the largest and best weather research community in the world. We spend more on weather prediction than anyone else. However, our forecast is not as good as others. And a shadow of what we can do.
I wrote a new paper describing the source of the problem. It’s a matter of organization, of duplication of effort, not having a single group or individual accountable, and the lack of a consistent system for improving our weather patterns.
And it will need active Congressional intervention to fix it.
