by Judith Curry
Are our current solutions just a short-term solution?
On Monday, November 15, I will be participating in a debate on iaiLIVE about The next environmental crisis. From the iai website:
The new one clean energy economyendorsed by governments and campaigners, promise to save usfrom environmental disaster. But worries are growing that we might be heading towards a new crisis in the future. For decades to come, some will argue that we will struggle to contain ourselves great environmental damage caused by billions of highly toxic and non-recyclable solar and car batteries, along with newly commissioned nuclear plants, while the internet itself, including bitcoin mining, consumes tree uncontrolled amount of energy.
Environmental problems even more challenging than we think? Will the new economy save us or current technical solutions short-term repair? Is constant consumption and growth the cause of our environmental problems? Or we can rely on human ability to solve the next crisis that we can stay in cause process now?
Royal cosmologist, astrophysicist and astronomer Martin ReesAward-winning economist and Professor of Environmental Economics Thomas Sternerand controversial climatologist Judith Curry Join us to ask if we are heading towards a new environmental crisis.
This will be a very interesting event. Each panelist was asked to answer the following questions
Will the new, green energy economy deployed by governments save us from environmental catastrophe?
- Is the environmental crisis the greatest threat facing humanity, and if so, how do we decide this?
- Are consumption and relentless growth the cause of our current predicament?
- Can we rely on humanity’s ability to deal with crises of this kind in the future?
Here is a draft of my responses:
Will the new, green energy economy deployed by governments save us from environmental catastrophe?
Over the past century, fossil fuels have backbone Our energy and transportation systems, provide engine for our growing prosperity.
Even without enforce regarding global warming and other environmental issues, we expect a nature transition away from fossil fuels transparent 21st centuries, as they become more expensive extract and further contribute to geopolitics unstable.
The problem is with emergency transition away from fossil fuels, driven by fear of global warming. Via continuity switch to this so-called clean energy economy, we’ve come a long way reverse in human development and prosperity. Countries are gradually catching up with their development too dependent on wind and solar energy. Worry about do not meet electricity demand this winter leads to dependence on coal in Europe and Asia. And we ignore the environmental impacts of mining and toxic waste from solar panels and cells, and destruction of raptors by wind turbines.
Arrive develop in 21st the world will need more and more energy. Belong to course We like our energy to be clean and cheap. To get there, we need new technologies. The most promising now are small modular nuclear reactors. But there are also exciting advances in geothermal, hydrogen and other things. And the technology landscape will different even 10 years from now.
Over the past two decades, humans have equated environmental disasters with human-caused global warming. We’ve heard about the climate crisisclimate Disastrous, existential threat and most recently a Red code for humanity. Note that the IPCC itself Not use the words ‘crisis’, ‘catastrophe’ or even ‘danger‘; rather it uses the term ‘reason to care. ‘ Beyond science uncertain thingsthe weakest part of the UN’s argument for human-caused global warming is that it is danger. The relationship to danger is based on the relationship between warming and extreme weather eventswhich is a blue best link.
I have old-fashioned views on environmental issues, focusing on Pollution air, water, land and oceans, and also on land use that destroys the habitat and degrades species diversity.
In 50 years’ time, we might be looking back at UN climate policies and this so-called green economy, using chemotherapy to try to cure a head cold, and at the same time ignore more serious illnesses. In other words, the climate crisis narrative hinders real solution for our social and environmental problems.
Theme 1: Is the environmental crisis the greatest threat facing humanity, and if so, how do we decide this?
In 2018, the World Health Organization declared that “Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century”. From the perspective of 2021, after nearly two years of fighting Covid with more than 5 million death, this statement seems unlucky at best. We should question whether WHO’s focus on climate change contributes to the world I will prepare for Covid-19.
Climate change is just one of the a lot of potential threats facing our world today, a point is made ventilation by the Covid-19 pandemic. Why change climate? prioritized than other threats? Only one wide scope about the threats we may face in the 21st century: The Carrington Events are electrical storms from the sun that will take away all electronics in space including GPS and power lines; future pandemics; global financial collapse; a large volcanic eruption; a series of mistakes that cause a thermonuclear, biochemical or cyberwar; the rise of terrorism. It is almost certain that we will surprise by threats we haven’t even envisioned. Big amount spending on the effort to prevent climate change comes from the same fund that effectively keeps insurance against all threats; This focus on climate change as a whole can increase our vulnerability to other threats.
So how do we prioritized Among the threats facing humanity? For the most part, we can not. The best insurance fighting any and all of these threats is trying to understand them, while increasing overall resilience of our society. Prosperity is the best indicator of resilience. Resilient societies learn from Prior to threats are best prepared to be anti-fragile and answer whatever future threats.
| Theme 2: Is constant consumption and growth the cause of our current predicament?
I’m not sure what our current predicament really is To bedifferent from one is produced by global politics around climate change. More prosperous societies generally have a less more impact on their environment than participating countries exploit their environment just to surviving wave. Environmental problems have been defined as problems with population growth. My populationncrease has been enabled by technological and medical advances. In the early 21sst century, the population is growing fastest in less developed countries, while Japan and many countries in Western Europe have relatively high fertility rates. below replacement. In addition to changes in population, as countries develop, their consumption also increases. Developing countries don’t just want to survive, they want to develop. We need more than electricity, no less. Get more energy diet as we did in the 1970s, it goes without saying. We need than electricity to support innovation and frugality in 21st century. Consumption and growth will continuencrease transparent 21st century. We need to Accept this premise and then figure out how we can manage this growth while guard our environment. |
| Theme 3: Can we rely on humanity’s ability to solve crises of this kind in the future? |
Humans are the best be adaptable species that once existed on Planet Earth, a species delicate that it can exist in outer space. The planet has been warming for more than a century. So far, the world has done a good job in adapt this change. Yields of many crops have double or even quadrupled since 1960. Over the past century, the number death per million people due to weather and climate disasters reduction via 97%. Losses from global weather disasters when one percent of GDP has decline over 30 years.
It is very large challenge to reduce the environmental impact on the planet of 8 billion people. I have no question that humans Skillful whose mission is to better provide for the needs and wants of Earth’s inhabitants, while supporting habitat and species diversity. But the problem is mayor challenge for the next millennium. It was a complex challenge that lasted very well outside understand the Earth system and develop new technologies – it also including governance and social values.
To make progress on this, we need to disable Superior that we can control Earth’s climate and prevent extreme weather events. The urgency of switching from fossil fuels to wind and solar power under the auspices of UN agreements has sucked all the oxygen out of the room. There is no space leave to imagine what our 21st What might century infrastructure look like, with New technology and better resistance to extreme weather events, or even to deal with traditional environmental problems.
Under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we have over-simplification very complex problem. The causes of climate change and change are complexand any predictions about 21st century climate change is associated with deep uncertainty. We are ready to give the general situation worse with simple solution urgent replacement of fossil fuels with wind and solar energy, which will be virtually nonexistent remarkable climate impact of 21st century.
Humans have the capacity to deal with future crises of this kind. However, they are also capable of making many things worse via over-simplification complex environmental issues and politicize science, which can lead to bias and poor policy choices.
JC notes: You need to register (and pay) to listen to this show live. I understand that a youtube will be prepared of the highlights and the final full audio recording will be made available on the iaiLive website.
I look forward to your comments on my review.
