Enthusiastic Idiocy vs. Infrastructure Optimization – Two Strategies for Energy Transformation – Does It Work?
Last week, buried in the flow of the weird crap that fills mailboxes these days, was a small treat – the Lee Valley catalog. It’s a miracle book, even if delivery could obviously take a year… not sure how I would have survived without the $80 “Whisttling Detector” or the Lucida 135 Camera dollars.
In addition to those staples, a German tool caught my eye – the Eierschalensollbruchstellenverursacher (oh, spellcheckers used to go crazy for that). It sounds like what it sounds like; a metal egg cup with a long stick protruding at the top with a weight on the bar that drops down and ‘pushes the clean rim through the shell’ allowing the user to access the yolk of a soft-boiled egg without the shell fragments.
It’s heartwarming to see how a little precision engineering can solve problems with precision and purpose. Bless the Germans.
I was thinking about this German’s technical precision while reviewing a racing series called ElectricGT (born 2017, died 2018). The series’ stupid failure made me think there couldn’t possibly be a single German engineer involved. (Although, Germany’s current energy policy is working similar to World War II… the custards and cars are delicate but perhaps the really macro stuff isn’t their strong point. )
The story of the ElectricGT is worth dissecting, as it is a perfect metaphor for the utter failure that an overly rushed energy transition will produce. In a hundred years of eierschalensollbruchstellenverursacher-ing, I cannot think of a better analogy.
Developing a series of international racing leagues is a tough business. It must be sanctioned by the world racing governing body, the same Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile that runs Formula 1. There must be many deep-spending sponsors. Tracks have to be rented a lot in advance and Formula 1 tracks probably don’t come cheap. Cars, teams, groups and drivers must be found, rented and organized. Cars were bought and modified with roll cages, etc… Some serious promotions followed to capture the world’s attention.
The organizers did all that, and did a great job. Professional website Show full sh*teree – first season of ten races. Races across Europe. Set tracks. 5 year development plan. Each race is a ‘festival weekend’ with a structured practice/race schedule: “The laps will include a 20-minute practice session, a 60-minute heat qualifier, a race of the day (60 km) ) and a sunset race (60 km).” The series was releasing already in Ibiza, headquarters of the Euro party. All systems go!
But then, deadly silence for four years. Not a peek, until a few weeks ago.
Some news about the series appeared in an article on The Verge website. The story isn’t news, it’s more like one of those “I’m finally ready to talk about it” statements that people emit as enough time passes. The Story: The racer/writer recounted that in 2017 he went to the south of France to shoot a promotional video at the first race. Strapped into his seat, he headed out to the first practice session of his first race. The practice time had been reduced to ten minutes, but no problem. The first impression of the lap is that the car feels great – very grippy thanks to the fast track and speed.
The second impression never materialized – the car packed it up before he could get going. The battery overheats at the end of Round 1, the car goes into half-discharge mode, and that’s it – for practice, for the race, for the whole series. The car, despite all the exterior foliage of a race car, isn’t just ugly – it’s an impossibility. Any of those involved could have driven the car to the track for 30 minutes to see what would happen. Not only did they not do that, but they also spent millions of dong just to find out that the dog didn’t go hunting.
And there we have the perfect metaphor for the hasty energy transition envisioned by the pompous elite at COP26. When you look at that crowd, the globalists do as I say but don’t do as I do, the undead colonists preaching Africa / India / China takes the weight of emissions from the steps With the passage of private jets, you might think it’s impossible that a dream team of a 30,000-strong global power trot would be able to convert energy in the wrong way, completely all like that.
That is why the lesson on ElectricGT is so valuable, as it shows the process of failure. Let your project be guided by a moral ‘command’ rather than actual laws, and that’s what you get. And it keeps happening, on a larger scale, because even the COP26 global kingpins make the same mistake.
COP26 leaders pushed agendas for developing countries, who pointed out that the metaphorical car wouldn’t work. India was asked to come up with a plan to stop using coal and they said no thanks. China won’t support it, not even the US. Even EU – EU! – has created a barrier for itself by refusing to include nuclear energy in the green energy category (nuclear is the only medium-term zero-emissions hope to significantly reduce hydrocarbon consumption). In the final irony, as the EU-led COP26 forum made progress on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, some EU member states created fossil fuel subsidies entirely. (in the form of limited energy bills for residents) to help their residents cope with hydrocarbon shortages/price spikes.
It’s the exact same model – start with their vision, build grandiose plans, spend lavishly, then realize that the whole thing (European emphasis on renewables like a solution) doesn’t work. To underscore this point, global consumption of hydrocarbons, the fuel squared at COP26, is currently at an all-time high, with global consumption still growing. Hydrocarbons have remained firmly stuck as a source of about 80% of the world’s energy needs for decades now, despite a trillion or two trillion dollars being thrown into renewables.
Of course, none of the above does away with the idea of energy transitions. One will happen. One is happening. What’s important about the event that’s happening is that it’s progressing because it’s merging with the existing hydrocarbon system, not trying to jump over its grave.
This is what a successful transition looks like. Another week, TC Energy announced partnered with Hyzon Motors, a supplier of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Under the partnership, the pair will “cooperatively develop, build, operate, and own hydrogen production facilities (hubs) across North America.”
TC Energy will operate the hubs, supply electricity/gas, and provide management services, property development, and electricity and gas sales marketing. Hyzon will take a big step forward in its plans for widespread commercial adoption of fuel cell vehicles. The joint venture will market the hydrogen to other industrial customers, which will help establish a hydrogen network.
Note the key difference here between these specific plans and the temporary COP26 jet wish list. The Hyzon/TC Energy plan will leverage and leverage the existing hydrocarbon-based system – TC Energy’s extensive pipeline network and related infrastructure. The COP26 visions refuse to talk about hydrocarbons, except to disparage them.
Once in a while, when the green illusions quickly crumbled, some commentators became irritated: Of course it won’t happen quickly, it’s a transition, everyone knows it will be very difficult. Even so, if such critics really understood that, they would not be quick to rush into the anti-hydrocarbon movement, or remain silent and complicit. There are indeed smart commentators who stress the need for a healthy hydrocarbon industry in the decades to come, but they are few and far between – many, like the Pembina Institute, masking anti-bias hydrocarbons in the guise of endless research about the industry’s growth rate disappeared. And the unchallenged leaders of the crowd are crystal clear, such as George Monbiot in The Guardian: “What we need at the Cop26 climate conference is a decision not to burn fossil fuels anymore after 2030… the positive feedback will make fossil fuels extinct quickly… Offshore wind and solar electricity prices The sharp decline – which is already cheaper than hydrocarbons in many countries – is making fossil fuel plants look like a dirty luxury.” Tell me again, dear noveau-energy transitionists, how constructive this unchallenged nonsense is and why it is not challenged by who claim to want progress.
The Hyzon/TC model will be the blueprint for the energy transition. It will succeed because it is a step away from the known equipment, processes and technology. The COP26 model would fail as spectacularly as the ElectricGT, because it is built on a normative vision of ‘what should be’ that is not tied to reality.
The hydrocarbon sector must stay healthy to ensure the infrastructure remains in good working order, as it is key to any successful transition. Hate change campaigns and ‘fossil fuel divestment’ are slowly wreaking havoc on the industry, at least in Europe and the United States. It is starving for capital. Excess cash flow is being returned to shareholders. Fewer and fewer young people are willing to enter the industry because everyone needs complexity.
(By the way, there is no energy transition yet – globally, growth in renewable energy supply is less than the increase in global energy demand. According to an analyst at Platts, the global renewable energy supply will increase by 35 gigawatts between 2021 and 2022, but the global electricity demand growth rate will increase by 100 gigawatts over the same period.)
The energy transition will be exciting, innovative, profitable and rewarding, because it will leverage all the skills and expertise (and products) of the hydrocarbon industry, which is quite productive. in keeping 7.7 billion people alive. It can be helped by appropriate government support, in effective ways, as long as those governments know where to start.
The COP26 model, which is built around future temperatures, is going nowhere, as has been demonstrated over the past few weeks. In fact, neither enthusiasm nor perceived need has the effect of shifting mountains. For anyone in doubt, this winter’s smoldering energy shortage will provide all the proof anyone needs.
Fast! Distribute some copies while the thought police are at COP26. Watch “Fossil Fuel Madness Madness” at Amazon.ca, Indigo.ca, or Amazon.com. Thanks for the support.29dk2902lhttps://boereport.com/29dk2902l.html
Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here. PS: Dear email reporters, the email flow is great and welcome, however I am having a hard time following up. In the past, I answered everything but became increasingly stressed. Apologies if comments/questions go unanswered; they are not ignored.
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