An elephant-heavy battery isn’t ideal for long-distance hauling, but eighteen-wheelers that don’t run on diesel engines may have found a niche.
When Elon Musk announced his plan to upgrade the long-haul transportation industry five years ago, it was hard to suppress the urge to laugh.
Long before he developed flamethrowers and humanoid robots, and bargained with Stephen King over Twitter subscription fees, the announcement of the long-distance best-selling truck saw the CEO of the company. Tesla Inc. choose a war not only with the age-old auto industry but also with fundamental economics and physics.
Batteries have many advantages, but density is not one of them. That’s not a problem for passenger cars, but once you use really power-hungry applications like long-distance transportation, transportation and air, tram begin to be overwhelmed by the weight of their own power plants.
A Type 8 semi-trailer with half a ton of diesel in the tank can haul a 20-ton payload for 1,000 miles between refueling stops. There’s no way that lithium-ion can compete. The three-ton, 540-kilowatt-hour battery pack on a fully equipped Volvo AB electric truck weighs the same as a rhinoceros. Tesla is more conservative about its battery specs, but a comparison with Volvo’s numbers, detailed analysis of its passenger cars and Powerwall battery details shows that the power plant alone is 1,000 kWh per their largest Semi will surpass the scale of nearly six tons. That is similar to an adult male elephant, or an empty school bus.
Even with a lighter powertrain, such a large battery pack would make it difficult to Tesla Diesel engines sell at a discount while staying within the overall weight limit of around 40 tons that the truck must adhere to to avoid damage to roads and bridges.
Logistics is an industry with extremely low profit margins. JB Hunt Transport Services Inc., one of the largest companies WE operators, last year earned about $1.63 per mile in revenue in its long-haul multimodal business, nearly half of which was from fuel. Make the payload smaller to accommodate pachydermic batteries, or reduce the operating range to allow for a smaller power plant, or spend more of the day hooking up to a Super Charger, and those meager returns begin. the head looks even thinner.
However, for all the skepticism (including mine) directed at the Tesla Semi, an infuriating possibility has emerged: Musk will likely get the last laugh.
Semi’s first working models were delivered last week to PepsiCo Inc., part of an order for 100 vehicles. It’s been three years behind schedule, but it’s still happening. More sober automakers are getting in on the action, too. Along with Volvo, Daimler Truck Holding AG placed orders for 1,280 zero-emissions trucks and buses in the first half of this year, and unveiled a prototype long-distance vehicle in September.
What’s changed? If Tesla has made significant breakthroughs in battery density, then Musk would be proud of that, so that’s not the answer. However, there is one big difference in 2022 compared to 2017: the cost of diesel.
A decline in domestic refining activity and a squeeze in energy prices in 2022 have caused U.S. truck fuel costs to nearly double from five years ago. Incorporate the current prices of California’s commercial diesel and electricity into a trucking cost calculator developed by logistics data provider ACT Research Co. done, and even an electric rig that’s twice as expensive as a conventional vehicle saves 12% in cost per mile. that equates to almost $17,000 a year at typical usage.
That may not last as diesel prices fall again The earthbut it’s close enough to put electric trucking into the game with certainty.
The other factor that supports Semi right now is that it’s not trying to provide all-around competition for long-haul trucks. Its range is only half of what a Class 8 can do between refueling stops. It is also said that one of their first customers will be the Frito-Lays factory. If you’re worried about the challenges of transporting heavy items as well as your huge batteries, some goods are more comfortable than feather-light pallets of chips.
Logistics is a large and diverse industry with many niches where electrified trucking can find growth. Last-mile deliveries from warehouses to stores and homes can provide the most favorable environments — but even in the more challenging territory of long-haul transportation, modern vehicles economy move lots of low-density goods like chips, pillows, and clothing where battery-powered trucks might have a chance to shine. Buyers can afford to test: 20 Tesla Semis ordered by FedEx Corp. represents a drop in the ocean next to their 86,000 off-road fleet.
Musk may have repeated the trick he followed with Tesla’s original electric Roadster. While the rest of the passengers car With an industry struggling to build a competitive electric car for the mass market, Tesla took the easy route to create a premium sports coupe where price doesn’t matter. . While the truck industry is looking to replace its most productive horses, Tesla is trying to grab just enough market share to start disrupting the market.
The battery technology to directly compete with Class 8 diesel tractors has not yet been invented. However, the Semi can get close enough to the electric truck.
