Three French-made Mirage 2000 fighter jets run on the runway in front of the hangar at Hsinchu Air Base on August 5, 2022. China conducts its largest-ever exercise. now encircle Taiwan despite condemnation by the United States, Japan, and the European Union.
Sam Yeh | AFP | beautiful pictures
Last Tensions soar between Beijing and Washington on Taiwan, the US Navy sent warships through the Taiwan Strait and there was nothing China could do.
Those days are gone.
The Chinese military has undergo a transformation since the mid-1990s when a crisis broke out about the Taiwanese president’s visit to the US, prompting an angry response from Beijing.
“It’s a very different situation now,” said Michele Flournoy, a former deputy secretary for policy defense in the Obama administration. “It’s a much more contested and dangerous environment for our forces.”
Unlike his predecessors, Chinese President Xi Jinping now has serious military power at his disposal, including anti-ship missiles, a powerful navy and an increasingly capable air force. capacity. Former officials and experts say the new military may be changing the strategic calculus of the US and Taiwan, increasing the risk of conflict or miscalculation.
During the 1995-96 crisis, amid current tensions, China held live-fire drills, issued stern warnings to Taipei, and launched missiles into the waters near Taiwan. .
But the U.S. military responded with its biggest show of force since the Vietnam War, sending a flurry of warships to the area, including two carrier battle groups. The aircraft carrier Nimitz and other battleships passed through the narrow waterway separating China and Taiwan, sparking ideas of US military dominance.
“Beijing should know that the most powerful military power in the western Pacific is the United States,” said then-US Defense Secretary William Perry.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) back then was a low-tech, slow-moving force that couldn’t match the US military, with a lackluster navy and air force that couldn’t get too far from shore. China’s sea, the past and the present of the United States. officials said.
“They realized that they were vulnerable, that the Americans could fly an aircraft carrier directly in front of them, and they couldn’t,” said Matthew Kroenig, who served as intelligence and defense officials for Bush, Obama and Trump. What can be done with that?” administrative agencies.
The Chinese, stunned by the US military’s high-tech display during the First Gulf War, “learned the American way of war” and launched a concerted effort to invest in the military. and above all – to strengthen their position in the Taiwan Strait, Kroenig said.
Beijing drew a number of lessons from the 1995-96 crisis, concluding that it needed satellite surveillance and other intelligence to detect enemies on the horizon, and navy and air force. blue water” can travel and fly over the Western Pacific, according to David Finkelstein, director of China and Indo-Pacific security affairs at CNA, an independent think tank.
“The PLA Navy has made remarkable progress between 1995 and 1996. It is truly amazing how fast the PLA Navy has built up. And of course in ’95-96, the PLA Air Force was barely there. never fly over water,” said Finkelstein, a retired US Army officer.
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described China’s dramatic rise as a military power like a strategic earthquake.
“In my view, we’re seeing one of the biggest shifts in global geostrategic power that the world has seen,” Milley said last year.
James Stavridis, retired four-star admiral and former NATO commander, said: “The Chinese military is now formidable, especially in and around its home waters, especially in the vicinity. Taiwan.
The Chinese navy now has more ships than the US, he said. Stavridis, an analyst with NBC News, said: Although the US Navy ships are larger and more advanced, with more experienced crews and commanders, “quantity also has the quality of it”.
According to experts, China is currently building amphibious ships and helicopters that can launch a possible all-out invasion of Taiwan, although whether the PLA can afford the feat? Whether that is the case or not is still a matter of debate.
During the 1995-96 crisis, China lost contact with one of its missiles and was determined to get rid of the US-linked global positioning systems, Matthew said. Funaiole, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They think ‘we can’t rely on other countries’ technology.
Funaiole and other experts say US and Taiwanese officials now have to reckon with a much more agile and powerful Chinese military that could deny the ability to deploy US warships or aircraft, even can even operate safely from bases in the area. .
“The game has changed in terms of deck stacking for America,” says Funaiole.
Outraged by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan This week, China conducted large-scale, live-fire military exercises, including ballistic missile launches, surpassing those conducted between 1995-96. The exercises took place in the waters surrounding Taiwan to the north, east and south, with some drills about 10 miles off the coast of Taiwan. According to experts, China once lacked the ability to conduct a major exercise in the waters east of Taiwan.
According to officials in Taipei, China on Thursday fired at least 11 ballistic missiles near Taiwan, one of which flew over the island. Japan said five missiles landed in its economic exclusion zone, near an island south of Okinawa.
This time, The U.S. government has not made any announcement about the warship moving through the Taiwan Strait. “Biden can try to do that, but China can get them to the bottom of the strait. That’s something they couldn’t do in 1995,” Kroenig said.
The White House said on Thursday that the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan would remain in the area as China conducts exercises around Taiwan to “monitor the situation”. But National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that a previously scheduled ICBM test had been postponed to avoid any misunderstandings.
Despite tough rhetoric between the two powers and rising tensions, China does not want to start a war after Pelosi’s visit and is looking to flex its muscles, former US officials and experts say volume rather than an invasion of Taiwan.
For now, Chinese President Xi is focused on boosting the country’s sluggish economy and securing an unprecedented third term at the next Communist Party congress later this year. However, China’s newly formed military could give Beijing too much confidence in Beijing’s decision-making or lead to a cycle of escalation where each side feels compelled to respond to show resolve. , the former officials said.
Flournoy, now president of the Center, said there was a risk that Mr. Xi could underestimate US resolve and that he believed there was an opportunity to take over or block Taiwan for the next few years before the payments were made. American investment in new weapons changes the military balance. for a New American Security advisory group.
“I worry about China miscalculating because the story in Beijing continues to be one of US decline, that the US is turning inward,” said Flournoy. “It’s very dangerous, if you underestimate your potential opponent.”
To prevent such an outcome, Flournoy argues that both Taiwan and the United States need to strengthen their military forces to deter Beijing and increase the potential costs of any possible invasion or intervention. for Taiwan.
Finkelstein said he worries about an “action-reaction” sequence of events that could lead to conflict that no one wants, and that the risk of miscalculation in Beijing, Taipei and Washington is “raised.” .
To prevent tensions, he said, the US and China need to pursue an intense dialogue to lower the temperature. “We need to talk to each other constantly.”
