Davos’ predictions failed

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, opens next week. This is the annual meeting where elite global business leaders, politicians, and economists make bold predictions and try to set the agenda for next year — but not at all. they do the right thing anyway.

Here is a summary of some of the calls made in recent years.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said at a panel, “I think more worrying things for Europe is right in the middle of storms from the supply chain, from the energy crisis and just the proximity close to some of the crimes that are happening in Ukraine.”

When asked if there is a recession in Europe, Fraser gave a definitive answer: “Yes – and I hope I’m wrong.”

Although the region’s growth has taken a hit and inflation has picked up, the EU has so far emerged from recession. Some analysts predict a case in early 2023, but say it will be “mild”. For example, Berenberg predicts GDP (gross domestic product) will shrink 0.1% in the euro area this year.

But Goldman Sachs has improved its outlook for the region, saying this week it is no longer forecasting a recession for the eurozone.

“We maintain our view that euro area growth will be weak in the winter months due to the energy crisis but are no longer looking for a technical recession. This reflects firmer growth momentum towards year-end. Last year, natural gas prices fell sharply and China reopened sooner,” Goldman analysts said in the note.

They point to a GDP growth rate of 0.6% for 2023, compared with consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline.

billionaire investor George Soros warned in his speech at Davos in 2018 that the United States may be headed for a nuclear war with North Korea.

“America is heading towards a nuclear war by refusing to accept it. [North] North Korea has become a nuclear power,” he said at the time.

The Obama administration also said in 2016 that it was a top national security risk.

So far, the United States has avoided any military conflict with North Korea. In fact, recent concerns in this direction have focused on Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine.

Brett Harrison, who served as president of FTX US, told CNBC in Davos in 2022 thatthe company is in a “very good location” related to capital and is considering acquisition.

US government arrested Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO, in December, and accused him of wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering. Bankman-Fried has pleaded not guilty.

At WEF 2020, then German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he confident that a trade deal between the United States and the European Union will occur. Scholz, now the country’s prime minister, said at the time: “Ultimately, we know that trade will be most successful without too many barriers.”

The two sides of the Atlantic have resolved a number of trade disputes since the US President Joe Biden take office in 2021 – but it seems they are still far from a comprehensive trade deal.

In reality, European countries express concern about Biden’s Inflation Reduction Actargues that it discriminates against European companies and does not follow international trade rules.

Despite media reports in 2022 suggesting Credit Suisse was considering replacing then-CEO Thomas Gottstein, when CNBC asked Credit Suisse Chairperson Axel Lehmann about it in Davos, he denied the reports.

“They didn’t talk to me and I know it didn’t happen, so that’s wrong,” he said.

The Bank of Switzerland announced in July that Thomas Gottstein has resigned.