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College Football League: Alabama could test the two-lose rule and you won’t like the final answer



Alabama may have a chance to rewrite another rule when it comes to the College Rugby Round.

No two-game losing team has made it to the CFP finals since it began in 2014. Alabama’s 2nd team (9-1) has the highest one-game losing streak behind Georgia’s #1 (10) -0). CFP selection committee chairman Gary Barta said there was a debate for that #2 spot with #3 Oregon and #4 Ohio State.

“I can tell you that 2, 3, and 4 are one area where the conversation goes on a little longer,” Barta said. “I mentioned earlier, we didn’t learn much about Alabama this week but continue to be impressed with the way they’ve played on both sides. There’s been a good conversation about where Alabama, Oregon and should be located. Ohio State.”

THAN: Barta explains the choice to rank Michigan ahead of Mich State.

If the Crimson Tide win, then they’ll be ahead of the Ducks and Buckeyes and potentially seeded #1 in a two-team SEC scenario with Georgia. That would hardly be in dispute.

So what if Alabama loses? Is a two-loss Crimson Tide team willing to break some of the CFP’s unwritten rules and become the first two-loss team to make it to the knockout stages? The basis for that argument was identified in two scenarios.

Alabama could lose to Arkansas or Auburn in either final then beat Georgia in the SEC championship game. Or Alabama could lose to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game. If it’s close, will the Crimson Tide still make it to the playoffs?

THAN: Latest CFP Ranking

Let’s take a look at the top two losers in the final CFP standings to see how that might turn out.

The second losing team has the highest ranking in the final CFP standings

YEAR SCHOOLS TAKE NOTE FINAL RANK
2014 Mississippi State 10-2 7
2015 Stanford * 11-2 6
2016 Penn State * 11-2 5
2017 Ohio State* 11-2 5
2018 Georgia ** 11-2 5
2019 Georgia ** 11-2 5
Year 2020 Oklahoma * 8-2 6

* Indicates conference champion
** Indicates conference runner-up

Georgia has landed in 5th place for consecutive seasons, including in 2018 when the Bulldogs lost to Alabama 35-28 in the SEC championship game. However, there is no window for the playoffs, with Alabama (13-0), Clemson (13-0), Notre Dame (12-0) and Oklahoma (12-1).

The field this year is much different. Georgia could earn a playoff spot simply by winning 12-0 in the regular season. The rest of the Power 5 candidate crowd will dwindle over the next few weeks.

Ohio State (9-1) plays against 7 Michigan (9-1) and 6 Michigan (9-1) in the next two weeks. Oklahoma 9 (9-1) and 13 Oklahoma (9-1) could play against each other twice, and the Big 12 could still be outside looking in. Oregon (9-1) is the underdog this week in Utah (7-3) in the Pac-12.

THAN: Betting Trends for Michigan State-Ohio State

So let’s say Georgia beat Alabama by a close and Ohio State and Oregon hold their place. Who will Crimson Tide have to hold out to stay with?

A Big 12 champ losing a game? One ACC champ loses if No. 10 Wake Forest (9-1) wins? No. 8 Notre Dame (9-1) no congress championship? Alabama could win those arguments with relative ease.

Ultimately, it comes down to a question that the committee may be forced to answer. If Team 5 Cincinnati (10-0) wins, will the committee let the first Team 5 enter or the first team lose two games?

Cincinnati should be the team present at the time. The Bearcats have a top 10 win over Notre Dame, an undefeated record, and they could help themselves by dominating SMU, East Carolina and potentially Houston in the American Athletic Conference championship. If they didn’t include a Group of 5 schools at the time, what good would it do to have G5 schools in the top 25 rankings?

However, Alabama could be the team to take 4th place, and the CFP committee will use any excuse to deal with that. The Crimson Tide’s best win was against Ole Miss, a two-loss team that could disrupt New Year’s Friday. The power of the SEC schedule argument will come into play, and the phrase “put Alabama on a neutral field against (insert team here)” will be used for all the teams they squeeze out. Just wait until Alabama coach Nick Saban plays politics.

The commission has set a dangerous precedent by putting Michigan ahead of Michigan State in the past two weeks. What will stop them from writing their own laws with Alabama?

They did it in 2018 when Alabama made the CFP despite not making it to the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide proved them right with a 26-23 win over Georgia in the CFP Championship.

Alabama, like it or not, operates with its own set of rules. Fair or not (it’s not fair), that could result in the team losing the first two doing CFP.

If that’s the case, then the conversation Barta mentioned about placing the top four teams won’t take as long as you might think.





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