Close link between solar variability and century-scale climate change – Rising from that?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

An international team of scientists, including Dr Willie Soon, have produced a solar model that does an ingenious job at recreating past climate changes such as the Little Ice Age. and the Medieval Warm Period.

Summary of the study;

The role of radiation factor in late Holocene global climate events

VM Fedorov 📧, DM Frolov 📧 Department of Geography, Moscow State University, Moscow, 119991 Russia
VMN Velasco Herrera 📧 Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, 04510 México
WW-H. Early 📧 Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Division of Solar, Star and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, 02138 USA d Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, Sopron, 9400 Hungary
RG Cionco 📧
Tecnológica Nacional University, Grupo de Estudios Ambientales, Buenos Aires, 2900 Argentina

Get April 30, 2021; revised July 16, 2021; accepted July 19, 2021

abstract—On the basis of calculations of isolation and isolation characteristics, taking into account changes in solar activity, the causes of global climate phenomena at the end of the Holocene were determined. The main reasons for the Little Ice Age (LIA) were the long and deep minimum insulation and seasonality (IS) periods in the Northern Hemisphere summer. The values ​​of the minimum values ​​are fixed in the range 1400–1750. Minimum depth over the last 5000 years, taking into account variation in solar activity, is about 8.0 W/m2 for summer insulation and about 13.3 W/m2 for Northern IS hemisphere. Medieval climate optimality is associated with a maximum of thermal insulation contrast (IC) during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, reflecting the increase in meridian heat transfer during the winter half of the year from the equator. to the polar regions, as well as with a maximum of heat transfer between the hemispheres. The winter IC gain at its maximum (1118) over 3000 BC was 28.4 W/m2. The difference between hemispheric radiant heat transfer at the peaks (881, 940 and 976) increased by 5.0 W/m2 compared with 3000 BC. So, Late Holocene global events are associated with extreme features (incoming radiation, IC, and IS of the Earth), but the temporal structure of the extremes itself is determined by variations in activity of the sun. From the above, when reproducing and predicting global climate events, it is important to take into account not only variations in incident radiation, but also associated changes in insulation characteristics. (IC and IS of the Earth), reflecting the heat transfer mechanism. IC regulates radiant heat transfer in the meridian direction; Its causes are changes in the inclination of the axis and precession. Earth’s IS determines the magnitude of heat transfer between the hemispheres. The remarkable features of insulation, which reflect not only the change in incoming solar radiation, but also the change in the heat transfer mechanism, are not taken into account in the general astronomical theory of climate. Taking these indicators into account will help to obtain more complete information about climate change in past periods and will allow for more accurate forecasting of future climates.

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It will be interesting to see how this new paper is received.

In a normal scientific field, a working model generates a lot of excitement. But as Willis recently pointed out, There seems to be a surprising degree of complacency among many climate scientists when it comes to model quality.


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