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Climate models don’t – match that?


Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Overcoming the miracle KNMI . website, which stores all kinds of climate data, they just finished moving to a new server. I noticed that they finished migrating Climate Model Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) data to the new server, so I downloaded all the model runs.

I think I will consider the future scenario with the smallest increase in CO2 emissions. This is the “SSP126” situation. KNMI has a total of 222 model runs using the SSP126 scenario. Figure 1 shows the rough model running with actual temperatures.

Figure 1. Raw results, 222 runs of the model, model CMIP6, scenario SSP126

So here we have the first problem. The different models can’t even decide how warm the historical period is. Average temperatures modeled 1850-1900 range from 12 and a half degrees to 15 and a half degrees … hardly recommended. I mean, given that the models can’t reproduce historical temperatures, what chance do they have of predicting the future?

Next, I take the anomaly using the early period 1850-1880 as the anomaly baseline. That gives them all the same starting point, so I can see how they have differed over a period of 250 years.

Figure 2. Anomaly, 222 model runs, model CMIP6, scenario SSP126

This leads to the second problem. As the density of results on the right side of the graph shows, the models roughly split into three groups. Why? Who knows. And by the end of the period, they predict a rise in temperatures from what are known as “pre-industrial” temperatures, from 1.3°C to 3.1°C… what numbers should we believe ?

Finally, it is claimed that we can simply average the different models in the “population” to find the true future temperature. So I compare the mean of 222 models with the observations. I used an outlier period of 1950-1980 so that the results are not biased by differences or inaccuracies in the original data. And I used Berkeley Earth and HadCRUT surface temperature data. Figure 3 shows that result.

Figure 3. Global surface temperature observations from Berkeley Earth (red) and HadCRUT (blue), along with the average of 222 climate models.

Which brings us to the third and biggest problem. In just under a quarter of a century, the model averages have been about 0.5°C to 0.7°C warmer than observations… YES!

And they actually claim that they can actually use these models to tell us what the surface temperature will be like in 2100?

I do not think so…

I mean seriously, people, these models are a joke. They are clearly not suitable for making public decisions worth trillions of dollars. They can’t even recreate the past, and they’re wrong about the present. Why should people trust them about the future?


Here on our jungle hillside, the rain, the beautiful rain, came right after I had finally finished washing all the walls, including the second story… timing is everything, the rain is washing it all away.

My best regards to everyone and honestly, if you believe these Tinkertoy™ climate models are worth more than a bucket of cow waste, you really need to sit down and argue. about climate…

w.

Read more: While researching this, I came across an excellent open access study titled “Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulation: Trend, Long-Term Durability, Autocorrelation, and Distribution Shape“. It was a very thorough in-depth examination of some of the many problems with models. TL version; DR: very few model results are really similar to real observed data.

Also, there’s a nice article in the journal Science entitled Attract the public’s trust about why people don’t trust science so much these days. Spoiler alert: climate models are honorably mentioned.

As always: When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. This avoids many misunderstandings that occur with intranets.


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