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Climate alarmist’s biggest fear


By Andy May

Is it just me, or have climate alarmists been more indifferent than usual lately? Al Gore screaming about boiling ocean and bomb rain only part of it. As Eric Worral reported, BBC blame global warming for a lack of snow, shortly after they blamed global warming for colder winters. And, who can forget John Kerry’s World War II style mobilization to combat human-caused climate change disasters? What disaster? Have no observational evidence today human activities are causing any climate-related problems and there is substantial evidence of warming and CO additions.2 was benefit from the so-called “pre-industrial”.

Could they be worried that global warming is slowing down? We are entering another period of disruption or pause in warming (horror!)? Talk about the humiliation in your face. They didn’t predict the first “Pause” from 1998-2014, if they missed again, what would it be like? Sure, CO2 is happening at a steady rate, as shown in Figure 1. There is no slowdown there.

Figure 1. Chart of Mauna Loa Annual Average CO2 data from DO NOT HAVEand a quadratic polynomial projection to 2032.

If the atmosphere CO2 continues to increase as in recent years, it will be 438 ppm by 2032, what if there is no warming, or very little warming, between now and then? What does it look like?

We will remember that the first pause occurs after Super El Niño 1998. Niño 1998 marked the beginning of a major tournament Climate Change leading to a Pause in Global Warming. This makes sense, El Niño is nature’s way of dumping excess heat from the ocean into the atmosphere so it can radiate into space. El Niños temporarily warm the Earth’s surface but have a lasting cooling effect. The frequency of El Nino events has decreased significantly in Holocene climate optimization (Moy, Seltzer, & Rodbell, 2002), ended about 6,500 years ago when the long period Neo-glacial cooling period started. According to Christopher Moy’s El Niño proxy data, we see that as the world enters little ice age, the lowest point of the New Ice Age, El Niño frequency peaks, then declines as the world gets colder. El Niños became very rare in the early 20th centuryorder when Moy’s record ends, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. The 40-year average of warm ENSO proxy events from Christopher Moy’s data. Only stronger El Niños are captured. El Niños cause immediate warming, but in the long run, they lead to cooling because they release ocean heat into the atmosphere and eventually the atmosphere releases heat into space. El Niño frequencies peak during warmer times and then cooling. Sources of data: (Moy, Seltzer, & Rodbell, 2002), analysis by Javier Vinós, author’s plot.

Moy generated the dataset plotted in Figure 2 from a sediment core taken in southern Ecuador. See the location map in Figure 3. The red sediment color intensity in this core correlates well with modern ENSO warming phenomena because Ecuadorian positive precipitation phenomena are closely related to the phenomena. Warm ENSO (El Nino). The lighter-colored inorganic red rock layers contrast sharply with the very dark organic-rich mud layers from the ENSO cold periods with lower precipitation. Moy’s examination of the region indicates that his cores only capture moderate to strong El Niño events, weak events that may not produce the colors he associates with El Niños.

Figure 3. The location of the Moy core, near Laguna Pallcacocha high in the Andes in southern Ecuador, is not to be confused with the much larger Laguna Palcacocha in Peru. From Google Earth.

With this data and history, it is very likely that the 2015-2016 major El Nino could lead to another long-term cooling effect. After all, since El Niño, we’ve had three La Niñas, collecting and storing ocean heat. How are we doing so far? See Figure 4.

Figure 4. UAH satellite global lower troposphere temperature record from annual average. The source: UAH.

After Niño 1997-1998, the atmosphere warmed rapidly as heat was transferred from the ocean into the atmosphere. Then through meridian transport Heat is moved from the tropics to higher latitudes and altitudes and is ejected into space. This cools the world down for a while. Then we have another big El Nino in 2015-2016 and the atmosphere warms up again, only to move into a new cooling phase. Across the record, the long-term or long-term warming trend is 0.0133°C/year. Figure 4 is constructed using the mean annual temperature of satellites in the lower troposphere.

Figure 2 shows strong El Niños that frequently occur as the world enters the Little Ice Age, which heralds eventual global cooling. El Niños become quite rare as the Little Ice Age ends. We’ve had two very strong El Niños just 18 years apart, are they a sign that the weather is getting colder?

What else do we see today? As shown in Figure 5, we have exited the Modern Solar Maximum, global temperatures appear to have peaked and are falling, the Atlantic Multi-Decade Oscillation (AMO) has stabilized and seems to be on the decline. The previous decline (~1957 to ~1977) in AMO coincided with an anomalous cooling from ~1947 to ~1977.

Figure 5. The top chart shows SILSO The sunspots are smoothed and we’ve escaped the Modern Solar Maximum. The chart in the middle shows YesCRUT 4 global surface temperature is smoothed. The bottom graph is a smoothed record of the Atlantic Multi-Decimal Oscillator (AMO). Color indicates qualitative meridian transport intensity. The source: Winter Gatekeeper, part VII.

Figure 5 illustrates the correlation between solar activity, North Atlantic sea surface temperature, and global mean surface temperature. This apparent correlation is ignored by the IPCC, who prefer to calculate their climate model of human contribution to climate change, that is very poor support in the observed data.

What if we predict the trends in Figure 5 in the future? See Figures 6 and 7.

Figure 6. Bray (2475 years), Centennial or Feynman (105 years), deVries (210 years) and Eddy (980 years) cycles are forecasted into the future. Source (Viños, 2022, p. 133). We are currently at the Feynman low.
Figure 7. Clilverd low frequency modulated solar model shown by sunspots and actual sunspots shown by red and red dashed lines. Source (Viños, 2022, p. 130). Dalton, Gleissberg and Clilverd solar minima are recorded. The current Clilverd minimum will end in the 2030s, and warming will then continue as we enter a new solar maximum. Data: (Clilverd, Clarke, Ulich, Rishbeth, & Jarvis, 2006).

Discuss

The AMO is a leading indicator of climate because it is a measure of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, the main meridian heat transport route from the tropics to the Arctic. It tends to get warm and cool periodically. As it warms, the meridian transport is weak and the vortex is extremely strong. This keeps the air cooler in the Arctic and keeps the rest of the planet warm. As meridian transport strengthens and polar vortex weakens, more heat is transported to the North Pole, more Arctic cold air escapes mid-latitudes, and the AMO becomes more negative due to the North Atlantic get cold.

Changes in Sun activity track very closely those in AMO, but the correlation is poor due to the Sun’s strong impact on the stratosphere. The stratosphere and ENSO influence both polar vortex strength and meridian transport.

Solar activity can ultimately drive long-term climate change, but in the short term, the solar effect is masked by changes in the meridian energy transport, which is very many factors. It is the power of this meridian transport that directly causes global climate change, and the energy it transports powers climate change. Variations in solar activity only trigger changes. Other important factors in natural climate change are the inertia of the climate system, variability within the oceans, and changes in the ozone layer and stratospheric winds. In the long run, changes in Earth’s orbit play a role.

So a word of warning to Al Gore, John Kerry and the BBC. You need to realize that your 50 year old friend is very outdated theory that humans dominate climate change through fossil fuel emissions and other human activities are becoming less likely over time. We find that the IPCC has published 47 reports on the possible hazards of anthropogenic climate change over the past 32 years, yet opinion polls show that the public is Don’t believe climate change is a priority. The next ten years will test your climate change ideas, and the results may not be pretty.

Clilverd, MA, Clarke, E., Ulich, T., Rishbeth, H., & Jarvis, MJ (2006). 24 Solar Cycle predictions and more. Space weather, 4. doi:10.1029/2005SW000207

Moy, C., Seltzer, G., & Rodbell, D. (2002). Variation of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at a millennial timescale during the Holocene epoch. Nature, 420, 162-165. Taken from https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01194

Vinos, J. (2022). Climates of the Past, Present, and Future, A Scientific Debate, 2nd Edition. Madrid: Critical Scientific Publishing. Taken from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363669186_Climate_of_the_Past_Present_and_Future_A_scientific_debate_2nd_ed

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