Guest “I am ashamed to admit that Charleston is where my ancestors first settled in America” by David Middleton
Willie Soon hat tip…
Climate change lawsuit: Taking fossil fuel companies to court
April 17, 2022 / 9:50 am / CBS NEWS
If climate change were a disaster movie, it would probably be accused of being overdone: wildfires turn the whole town to ashesstorm swamp citydrought lake drainage and withered fieldand the ocean is raging redraw the map of our shores. And now, many cities and states are asking, who is going to pay for all this?
“This is real,” said John Tecklenburg, mayor of Charleston, South Carolina. The city has been ravaged by an endless parade of flooding caused by rising seas. Some desperate homeowners have resorted to lifting. height of their house by a few feet.
“Over the next 50 years, we will see another 2-3 feet of sea level rise,” Tecklenburg said. “Water is our greatest asset; It has also become our biggest challenge. ”
[…]
about +/- 0.19 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from
1901 to 2021, which equates to a change of 1.11 feet in 100 years.
NOAA
- 3.39 mm/year * 50 years = 169.5 mm
- 169.5 mm / 25.4 mm / inch = 6.67 inches ~ 0.5 feet
“What about the acceleration of sea level rise?”
What about it?
Changes in relative sea level trends over 50 years
8665530 Charleston, South Carolina
Relatively linear sea level trends are calculated in superimposed 50-year increments for stations with sufficient historical data. The change of each 50-year trend, with a 95% confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50-year period. The horizontal solid line represents a relatively linear sea level trend using the entire recording period.
Although the trend may vary from year to year, there is no statistically significant difference between the calculated trends if their 95% confidence intervals overlap. Therefore, the most recent calculated trend is not necessarily more accurate than previous trends; it’s merely a little more accurate. If the last few years have had unusually high or low water levels, the values may actually move slightly away from the true long-term linear trend.
“But, but, I see a trend there!”
Although “there is no statistically significant difference between the calculated trends if their 95% confidence intervals overlap,” let us just assume that the trend is clearly real.
This will result in a sea level rise rate of 4.78 mm/year by 2071. Just to make the math easier, if sea levels rise at a rate of 4.78 mm/year within 50 years next, it will lead to 9.4 inches of sea level rise… ~ 0.75 feet.
So, where is the money-hungry Democrat mayor of Charleston that will see two to three meters of sea level rise over the next 50 years? Possibly from the same people who have data showing a 0.5 to 0.75 foot sea level rise over the next 50 years.
The figure shows the station’s annual mean relative sea level with its six regionalized sea level rise scenarios plotted for the base period 1991-2009 (for example, year 2000 as ‘0’ for this figure) as described in the above report Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the US.
The “high” scenario has sea level rise of 750 mm (0.75 m) between 2080 and 2100, an average rate of 36 mm/year. This is physically impossible. The average sea level rise rate during the Holocene transgression is only about 11 mm/year.
The “intermediate” scenario shows sea level rise of 400 mm between 2080 and 2100, an average rate of nearly 20 mm/year over that 21-year period. Again, speaking of Doctor Evil melting the Greenland Ice Sheet with a space “laser”, this is unlikely.
As is common in alarm climate models, the “low” scenario represents the highest sea level rise supported by actual observations.
Background: Tidal Strip
Sea level rises (and falls) 6 feet in a typical Charleston day…
Context: The Fall
Scientists working to understand the submerged land in Charleston, South Carolina
By Jan Wesner Childs September 23, 2020[…]
Data from a NOAA meter in Charleston shows that about 5 out of 12 inches of sea level rise at the site for more than 100 years may be due to subsidence. It is not clear why the land subsided.
One theory: it has to do with soil compaction caused by large buildings, highways, and other incremental development.
“We already have buildings on the peninsula. Now we are getting much larger buildings on the peninsula,” Norm Levine, director of the Lowcountry Hazard Center at the University of Charleston, told the Post and Courier. “If we get out there right now and measure everything, we can start to understand susceptibility.”
[…]
Total sea level rise in Charleston over the past 100 years is just over 1 foot.
The relative sea level trend is 3.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.19 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1901 to 2021, which is equivalent to 1.11 feet change in 100 years.
If Charleston’s 5 to 12 inches of sea level rise is due to subsidence and only 13 inches of sea level rise, then the Democratic mayor’s money-maker has a planning problem, not climate change. I wonder if Charleston would advise their bond buyers on this local issue?
I previously wrote about this trash lawsuit in this September 2020 post:
Charleston SC Junk Climate Sue
Some highlights from that post:
Q&A about flooding frequency in South Carolina
In 2015, Dr. Robert Holmes, USGS National Coordinator for Flood Hazards, took the time to discuss several issues related to flooding in South Carolina following the Appalachian Floods and Hurricanes Joaquin.
[…]
Is this flood caused by climate change?
The USGS study found no link between flooding (increase or decrease) and an increase in greenhouse gases. Essentially, from USGS long-term flow data for locations across the country with no regulations or other changes to the watershed that could affect flows, the data show no systematic increase in flooding over time.
However, a much larger impact on flooding is land use change. Without appropriate mitigation measures, urbanization of watersheds will increase flooding. Furthermore, encroachment of households and businesses into floodplains leads to greater economic losses and potentially loss of life, with more encroachment leading to greater losses. than.
JUNE 24, 2014
The History Behind the Floods in Charleston, South CarolinaFor many people, the idea of sea level rise and its associated effects is seen as future events. But, here in Charleston, it’s already a part of life. Coastal flooding is a major problem facing the city. All that is needed is just the right tide, or even worse, an extremely high tide combined with a torrential downpour during rush hour, and the streets of Charleston become the fingers of Atlantic Ocean that no vehicle can cross. It’s not hard to imagine that one day these flooded streets will turn into creeks and swamps. And in many cases, that’s what they were.
Since returning 18order During this century, the Charlestonians expanded the city’s footprint by filling in the creeks and marshes. Alfred O. Halsey’s Historic Charleston on the map provides an astonishing illustration of the peninsula’s changing landscape (Charleston Conservation Society [PSOC]). The map shows that many areas that are frequently flooded are man-made land.
The aptly named Water Street in the South of Broad neighborhood was originally Vanderhorst Creek, until it was filled in 1792. Many people are familiar with the image of the river. Kayakers glide through the City Market after the wayward bands from Hurricane Isaac hit the city. This could have been a common sight if what was once the Governor’s Creek had not been filled in to create Market Street in the first decade of the 19s.order century. Both the Charleston and Cannonborough Village neighborhoods were filled up in the mid-1800s, and both are notorious for their flooding problems. The city continued to change its coastline into the late 1960s. During this time, construction of Lockwood Avenue resulted in the cutting of the Charleston City Yacht Basin from the Ashley River and transforming it into a placid pond. (Thompson 2013).
[…]
Geographical area (NOAA Office of Coastal Management)
Together I compared Halsey’s 1949 historical map (Charleston Conservation Society) and the 1869 Charleston street map (University of Texas):
Charleston flooded because they built most of the city in the Atlantic Ocean. And… let’s not forget subsidence.
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