But What Results? Using the same tree-ring dataset, 15 groups give 15 different structures – Does that work?

From NoTricksZone

Via P Gosselin above 19. April 2022

A 2021 study appears in Nature Communications by Buentgen et al based on the results of a double-blind experiment of 15 different groups that obtained 15 different Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reproductions. Each group used the same network of area tree ring width datasets.

Hat head: Klimaschau 108

The catch is that the groups will use the same data network but give a different result. When it comes to temperatures from tree rings, it has a lot to do with individual approach and interpretation. Sure we can follow science, but whose results?

15 groups (referred to as R1 – R15) were challenged with the same task of developing the most reliable NH summer temperature reconstruction for the Common Era from nine high altitude/latitude TRW datasets (Image. first):

Cut from Figure 1, Buentgen et al

The 15 independently contributing groups to this experiment all have experience in developing tree-ring-based climate reproduction. But as the study describes, each group used a distinct reconstruction approach. In summary, the results ranged up to 1°C.

How can groups give different results?

The abstract of the paper summarizes: “Differences in mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity and robustness, group members show the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the frequent use of synchronized reconstruction approaches to provide a more unified picture of past climate variability”.

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