Supporters of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the former president of Brazil, react as votes are being counted during the first round of the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sunday, October 2, 2022. Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the leftist Workers’ Party won the most votes in Sunday’s Brazilian presidential election, but not enough to avoid a vote overflow against his far-right opponent , incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
Tuane Fernandes | Bloomberg | beautiful pictures
Brazil’s two top presidential candidates will face each other in a landslide vote after not having enough support to win outright Sunday in an election to decide whether the nation Will this return a leftist to the leadership of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or keep the far right in office. in the office.
With 98.8% of the votes counted in Sunday’s election, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has 48.1% support and incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro has 43.5% support. Brazil’s electoral authority said the outcome of a second round vote between the two candidates was a mathematical certainty.
Nine other candidates are also competing, but their support differs from Bolsonaro and da Silva.
The rigor of the results was a surprise, as pre-election polls gave Da Silva a commanding post. Datafolha’s final survey released Saturday found da Silva has a 50% to 36% advantage among those planning to vote. It interviewed 12,800 people, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
“This tight difference between Lula and Bolsonaro was not anticipated,” said Nara Pavao, who teaches political science at Federal University of Pernambuco.
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said: “It’s too early to go too deep, but this election shows that Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 is not a ladder. “
According to Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consulting firm Tendencias Consultoria, Bolsonaro performs better in Brazil’s southeastern region, which includes the populous states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.
“Polls haven’t captured that growth,” Cortez said.
Bolsonaro’s administration has been marked by provocative speech, testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticized handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the country. Amazon rainforest for 15 years.
But he has built a devoted base by defending conservative values, opposing political correctness, and presenting himself as a defender of the nation from leftist policies that he considers illegal. violate individual liberties and cause economic instability.
While voting the previous Sunday, Marley Melo, a 53-year-old businessman in the capital Brasilia, campaigned for the yellow color of the Brazilian flag, which Bolsonaro and his supporters had watched to demonstrate. Melo said he’s again voting for Bolsonaro, who has lived up to his expectations, and he doesn’t believe surveys show he’s on track.
“Polls can be manipulated. It’s all about companies with interests,” he said.
The slow economic recovery has yet to reach the poor, with 33 million Brazilians still hungry despite higher welfare payments. Like some of its Latin American neighbors facing high inflation and large numbers of people being excluded from official work, Brazil is considering turning to the political left.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly questioned the reliability not only of opinion polls but also of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Analysts are concerned that he has laid the groundwork to refute the results.
At one point, Bolsonaro claimed to have evidence of fraud, but never presented any, even after the election authorities set a deadline to do so. He said as recently as September 18 that if he doesn’t win in the first round, something must be “abnormal”.
Da Silva, 76, was a former metalworker who rose from poverty to become president and is credited with building an extensive social welfare program during the 2003-2010 tenure that helped raise tens of millions of people into the middle class.
But he is also remembered for his administration’s involvement in major corruption scandals that entangled politicians and business executives.
Da Silva’s conviction on corruption and money laundering charges resulted in a 19-month prison sentence, disqualifying him from the 2018 presidential race that polls showed he led against Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court later dropped da Silva’s charges on the grounds of judge bias and collusion with prosecutors.
Social worker Nadja Oliveira, 59, said she voted for Da Silva and even attended his rallies, but since 2018 has voted for Bolsonaro.
“Unfortunately, the Workers’ Party let us down. It promised to be different,” she said in Brasilia.
Others, like Marialva Pereira, are more forgiving. She said she would vote for the former president for the first time since 2002.
“I didn’t like the scandals during his first administration, never voted for the Workers’ Party again. Now I will, because I think he was unjustly jailed and because Bolsonaro is such a bad president that it makes everyone else look better.” Pereira, 47 years old said.
Speaking after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, the manufacturing hub in Sao Paulo state where he is union leader, da Silva recalled that four years ago he was jailed and unable to vote.
Bolsonaro grew up in a middle-class family before joining the army. He turned to politics after being forced out of the army for publicly pushing for a raise in military pay. During his seven terms as a marginalized lawmaker in the lower house of Congress, he frequently expressed nostalgia for the country’s two-decade-long military dictatorship.
His statements to the armed forces have raised concerns that his rejection of an election result could be backed by his top counterparts.
On Saturday, Bolsonaro shared social media posts by far-right foreign politicians, including former US President Donald Trump, who urged Brazilians to vote for him. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed gratitude for the growing bilateral relationship and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban also praised him.
After voting on Sunday morning, Bolsonaro told journalists that “clean elections must be respected” and that the first round would be decisive. When asked if he respected the result, he gave a thumbs up and walked away.
Leda Wasem, 68, is certain Bolsonaro will not be re-elected. Wearing the national football team’s jersey at a polling station in downtown Curitiba, the real estate agent said Da Silva’s eventual victory could have only one explanation: cheating.
“I couldn’t believe it. In the place where I work, where I go every day, I don’t see a single person supporting Lula,” she said.
