This is what happens when a well-intentioned incrementalist locks horns with a brutal opportunist.
The opportunist seizes the opportunity.
Here’s what happens when one of the most traditionalist politicians still standing in the United States faces a historic confrontation with the world’s most evil dictator who ultimately justifies any any means.
Active authoritarian.
This is what happens when the President Joe Biden, 79 years old, battered by our messy democracy after a long year in power, against the President Vladimir Putin69 years old, looking more determined than ever in the third decade of his authoritarian reign.
Unless President Biden can turn this ongoing Ukraine crisis into an opportunity – by rallying allies and managing internal divisions as President Harry Truman did at another inflection point – then Failure for Europe and the world could be huge.
Unless, like Truman, he can change the situation so that the US and its allies regain the initiative, Putin (with China’s moral and material support) will continue the campaign. long-term to reverse the most important outcome of the Cold War: the principles by which the nations of the world will shape the future together.
“Those principles,” speak Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Berlin this week, “established after two world wars and the cold war, denies one country’s right to change another’s borders by force; orders the nation to different from the policies pursued or chosen by that state, including with whom to associate; or exercise a sphere of influence that would subjugate its sovereign neighbors under their will.”
Blinken’s words very powerful and worth repeating here because it’s so easy to get lost in a flurry of news this week:
“Letting Russia violate those principles with impunity would drag us all back to a much more dangerous and unstable time, when this continent and this city were split in two, separated by no man’s land, patrolled by soldiers, with the threat of all – war is no longer over everyone’s heads It will also send a message to the rest of the world that these causes This rule is consumable and that will lead to catastrophic results as well.”
Some argue that the United States is not in a position to take the lead in defending these important post-Cold War principles, with its own democracy so divided and disheartening, and the popularity of its president. plummeted ahead of decisive midterm elections.
However, it was even more reason to look at Harry Truman, who assumed the presidency in April 1945 following the death of Franklin Roosevelt at the end of World War II. His Democratic Party was fiercely divided, between big-city progressives and Southern conservatives.
However, he supported what would be passed today as contrarian initiatives, expanding the welfare state and stepping up government intervention in the economy, despite one US voter saying are generally more conservative.
If all of that sounds familiar, it’s also worth remembering that before this year’s midterm elections, Truman’s Democrats of 1946 – the first election after World War II – had lost 54 seats to Republicans in the House and lost 11 seats to the Republican Party. in the Senate, allowing Republicans to take control of both houses for the first time since 1932.
That has happened even as Republicans are navigating their own familiar-sounding disputes between the right and the moderates, especially regarding foreign policy as the United States struggles to find their identity in the face of post-war changes. The conservative isolationist old Guard, led by Senator Robert Taft of Ohio, is toying for influence against the internationalist camp, with members like Massachusetts Senator Henry Cabot Lodge.
(Another reminder that while history may not repeat itself, it certainly rhymes, white supremacy was a major election theme in Georgia, where Governor Eugene Talmadge won a second term. after the campaign to purge blacks from the electoral roll.)
Partisan quarrels never end. Truman left office in January 1953, achieving a historically low approval rate of 22% the previous year, due to the protracted Korean War, economic downturn, labor unrest and government corruption.
However, he is now considered one of the greatest presidents of the United States because of his response to the Soviet challenge – including the Marshall Plan of 1948, the Berlin airlift of 1948-49 and the founding of NATO in 1949. His political, diplomatic, military and economic initiatives set the stage for the cosmopolitan US foreign policy that set the stage for the Cold War. ended and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990.
President Biden should keep all of that in mind as many experts advise him to “correct” now to avoid failure in the administration.
An administration official listed three fundamental errors that need to be addressed immediately: mismanagement of the continuing Covid-19 challenge, underappreciation of the politics that engulfed the “Build Good Again” act. over” and, most importantly, for his election hopes, underestimating inflation risks.
Still, even if President Biden can “fix” to address all of the challenges at home, that could be the easy part. It was Truman’s handling of international affairs that earned his place in history and shaped the world at an inflection point that shaped the postwar era. The stakes also have historical value for Biden, who was right to see our period as well as a “inflection point.”
Biden cause an uproar This week, during a lengthy press conference on Wednesday when he appeared to suggest that the allies would be divided over what to do about a “minor invasion” of Ukraine.
Although US officials correct his statement To appease Ukraine’s leaders and domestic critics, The Washington Post’s editorial board was right to drug that the president “speaks the truth.”
Like this column Discuss on 9 January, for all Russia’s continued military and mixed capacity building, Putin’s actions may be more cunning and messy than many expect, designed to divide allies. NATO alliance and US domestic politics on how to best respond.
Foreign Minister Wink at this week in his Friday meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seems to have spent more time in negotiations with the Russians. Or perhaps, As the analysis of the Atlantic Council military fellows shows, it could easily provide more time to complete military preparations for an invasion.
Ultimately, the issue is not the nature of Putin’s next move but the troubled trajectory behind it, including Russia’s invasion of Georgia during President George W. Bush’s 2008 tenure. invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014 during the presidency of Barack Obama, and now this test of President Biden.
Like Truman said in 1952, referring to a country divided politically and rallying against the forces of isolation, “World leaders in these perilous times call for policies that, while emanating from benefits, beyond it – policies that serve as bridges between our national goals and the needs and aspirations of other free peoples.”
–Frederick Kempe is the President and CEO of the Atlantic Council.
