Balloon incident highlights the fragile state of US-China relations

After years of deep distrust and simmering tensions, relations between the United States and China appear poised for a modest recovery following the meeting of the leaders of the two countries at a summit in the United States. November last year and Beijing’s recent efforts to stabilize relations with the world. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken’s visit to Beijing this weekend is expected to continue that process.

All it needs is a balloon to prop things up.

The discovery of what US military officials call an “altitude surveillance balloon” over Montana this week, and Mr. Blinken decided to cancel Friday’s triponce again exposing the fragility of relations between two great powers caught in an increasingly intense competition for military, geopolitical and technological supremacy.

revelation of the location of the hot air balloon fueled bipartisan outrage in the United States, including calls to shoot it down, and left the Biden administration with little room to maneuver — even as China expressed its regret vehemently. irregularity in the appearance of the ship.

The two countries have make competing claims about the nature of airships. The Pentagon said it was used for “intelligence gathering”, while China said it was a civilian vessel used for scientific research and that it had deviated.

Wang Yi, the top official in China’s foreign policy hierarchy, told Blinken in a phone call late Friday that “China is a responsible country and always adheres to strict international law,” China’s foreign ministry said on its website.

The brief summary of their call made no mention of the balloon or Blinken’s cancellation of the trip, but suggested that Chinese leaders believe the Biden administration exaggerated the incident.

Although there is no indication that the hot air balloon poses a serious military or intelligence threat to the United States, the symbolism of a Chinese boat adrift on the continental United States adds an element. a new element of uncertainty into the world’s most core relationship. pressing challenges, such as maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, rebuilding the post-pandemic economy, and combating climate change.

“It was a small act with big consequences,” Rorry Daniels, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said of the balloon. “It’s amazing when you look at the history of the US-China relationship and all the different stages the relationship went through to end up here.”

She added that the reduced level of communication between the two governments in recent years has made it more difficult for them to test assumptions about each other’s intentions in diplomatic crises.

In the months leading up to the hot air balloon incident, the Chinese diplomatic mission toned down the typical harsh rhetoric about Washington. One highlight was the call by China’s incoming Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, to build “mutual understanding and close relations between the two peoples” in comment he launched last month when leaving his position as ambassador to the United States.

China has find ways to reduce stress abroad to focus their energies on repairing the beleaguered economy and escaping the isolation caused by Covid-19. Liu He, the country’s deputy prime minister, attended the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, last month, to attract foreign investment and announced that China had opened its doors. business is back.

How such an apparently Chinese spy balloon ended up in the United States, analysts say, hints at divisions within the Chinese government over its strategy toward major geopolitical competitors.

Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former director of the National Security Council on China, said: “The general direction of China’s recent diplomatic message to the United States is to seek to de-escalate tensions. straight.

He added: “The spy balloon incident doesn’t fit the overall message. “This raises questions about the quality of coordination in China’s security system.”

Hass said China’s leader, Xi Jinping, cannot afford to let Sino-US relations get worse. Managing these relationships is one of Mr. Xi’s main responsibilities in the eyes of the country’s elites. Under his watch, Washington has crippled major Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei, imposed sweeping export bans on key semiconductor technology and forged military ties. across Asia, most recently this week’s news about expanding US access to military bases in the Philippines.

“Secretary Blinken’s postponement of the visit could clearly raise questions internally about Mr. Xi’s ability to manage tensions with the United States,” Mr. Hass said. “The issue has been a weak spot on Xi’s overall résumé after a decade of historically strained relations with the United States under his leadership.”

Tensions could escalate this year. There is now a new select committee in the House to investigate the strategic challenges posed by China. And if the new Republican chairman, Kevin McCarthy, makes good on his plan to visit Taiwan, it could trigger the same tensions that have prompted China to respond with a quasi-military blockade as the former president Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi traveled to the autonomous island last year.

However, China’s reaction on Friday to the ballooning revelation underscored the country’s more cautious tone since last year. Past confrontational tactics, known as “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, named after a hilarious Chinese movie, won’t show anything near regret for the ball. fly. Instead, Beijing’s acknowledgment that the ship is Chinese and its commitment to continue communication with the United States shows Blinken’s desire to advance the visit.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar who studies US-China relations, said: “The fact that China acknowledges the balloon is worthy of recognition.

Other experts offer a different assessment: China may have intended to detect the balloon to regain the initiative and gauge Washington’s resolve when tested by Beijing. The presence of hot air balloons sends a message that China is capable of spying on the heart of the United States the way many Chinese think the United States is doing with China, or at least on its periphery. this by spy planes, satellites and naval patrols.

“China wants to show that it is not inferior to the US, that it is operating to its strengths,” said Benjamin Ho, China program coordinator at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “China is proving to the US that, ‘We can do to you what you’ve been doing to us for a long time.’”

Ho said news of the balloon’s flight would help Mr. Xi gain points domestically with nationalists. Another view in China blames the rising tide of hawks in the United States for the overreaction to the ship.

“It may have been a good opportunity for China and the US to warm up, but this incident has overshadowed it,” said Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. “We can see the new Congress sharpening knives and sharpening swords for China.”

Olivia Wang research contributions and Chris Buckley contribution report.