Australia sees coldest and wettest spring in decades amid La Niña for third time in a row – Is it speeding up with that?
Via P Gosselin
Via Dead kalte Sonne.
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
2007 La Nina. Icon image, from NASA.
When it comes to German TV meteorologists, warm and dry weather is no longer good weather but bad weather. At least that’s what we usually read. Australia currently has very nice weather by this logic. ABC report about an unusually cold season below.
“Particularly cloudy conditions this spring have kept maximum temperatures much lower than in recent years.
Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra all had maximum temperatures at least one degree below average and their lowest since 1992. Spring in Brisbane was the coldest in 12 years and for Perth it was the coldest in six years.
Sydney’s maximum temperature was the lowest in four years but average temperatures, including minimums, were the coldest since 2003 and the city failed to hit 30C for the first time in three decades.
Hobart is colder in 2021 and Darwin has no spring.
What’s even more unusual is that some of Sydney’s western suburbs, including Penrith, were recorded not reaching 30 degrees for the first time.
This spring is only the second time in a decade that the average maximum across Australia has been below the long-term average.
Of the 42 seasons since winter 2012, the only other season with colder-than-normal days is summer 2020-2021.”
The article does not state that the cause is climate change, or climate warming, because such cooling would be somewhat difficult, although it is often argued that it is getting colder because it is getting warmer. It is the La Niña situation that is bringing Australia the humidity but also the cold. There were similar temperatures in 2010 and then there was also a strong La Niña.
What was unusual this time was that it was the third La Niña in a row.
“In many ways, this spring is just scripted and has no chance of being the often romanticized, warm and sunny version depicted in fairy tales.
During the past 20 years, there has been only one other spring that has been colder than usual at its maximum, and that was 2010 — also a year with a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña.
What is surprising, however, is that the unusually cold November comes after several waves of polar air have escaped from Antarctica and come to rest on our shores.
The result is rare late spring snowfall as far north as Midwest NSW and the coldest November on record for several towns, including Forbes and Ivanhoe, where maximum temperatures are lower. an average of more than five points.”
Once again we remind you that the US Weather Bureau always makes forecasts for El Niño and La Niña for only a period of about 6 months. There’s a reason for this: long-term forecasts, such as PIK’s forecast in 2019, turn out to be wrong. Instead of El Niño, La Niña came. Little has been heard of further forecasting efforts since this false prediction. We have reported about failure at the time. Reliable forecasts will certainly be important to be able to adjust to conditions, but perhaps “scientific has settled” is not the last word in wisdom. Or to put it philosophically in the style of Plato: We know that we know nothing. World Meteorological Organization cautious assumption that we can expect La Niña conditions in the next few months.
- “”The tropical Pacific has been in a La Niña state since September 2020 with a short break from June to August 2021; This La Niña condition has been ongoing since mid-November 2022, with La Niña event thresholds already exceeded for both oceanic as well as atmospheric conditions.
- Model predictions and expert assessments suggest that La Niña will most likely continue, with a probability of about 75%, between December and February 2022/2023. The ability to neutralize ENSO is about 25% and for El Nino it is almost zero. From January to March 2023, the probability of La Niña happening drops to about 60%.
- The current La Niña transition to the ENSO neutral state is favorable between February and April 2023, with about a 55% chance of ENSO neutralization conditions during this period, increased by about 70% between March and May.
- The chance of El Niño developing is negligible until late spring in the north, increasing to about 25% between May and July 2023.”
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