BOGOTá, Colombia — A rare meeting between the leaders of Venezuela’s bitterly divided government and the opposition is expected to result in two major deals aimed at defuse a political and humanitarian crisis. complexities of the country.
The meeting reflected in part the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has reduced global oil supplies and forced the United States to reconsider restrictions on energy companies operating in Venezuela.
If all goes according to plan, the talks, scheduled for Saturday, will result in an agreement to move up to $3 billion in frozen Venezuelan government funds abroad by next month. a humanitarian program administered by the United Nations – a concession by President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, who has long denied the extent of suffering that has taken place during his tenure.
At the same time, the US is expected to approve Chevron Corp’s license request. to expand operations in Venezuela, according to three people familiar with the deal. The deal could be an important step towards allowing Venezuela to re-enter the international oil market, which Mr. Maduro desperately needs to improve the economy.
US State Department official publicly applauded a return to negotiations between the two sides, after an earlier attempt was cut off by the Maduro government last year.
But a Biden administration official familiar with the negotiations said that any action involving Chevron in Venezuela “It is up to the parties to actually announce specific commitments to support the Venezuelan people.”
The official requested anonymity so he could speak freely on the matter.
For years, Chevron and other oil companies have been prevented from large-scale operations in Venezuela by US sanctions designed to starve Mr. Maduro’s government.
Francisco Monaldi, director of Rice University’s Latin American Energy Program, said that after the expected accord, other companies will likely press the United States to lift more restrictions related to Venezuela, including orders sanctions ban entities in India and elsewhere from importing Venezuelan oil.
The United States is likely to tie such actions to further concessions by Mr. Maduro. But if it lifted sanctions, it would be an economic “game changer” for Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Monaldi added.
“My concern,” he said of Chevron’s tentative license, “is that the US seems to be giving very little.”
A Chevron spokesman would not comment on the proposed deal.
The meeting between the Venezuelan government and opposition leaders, held in Mexico, was the result of more than a year of dialogue between the two sides on how to resolve the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crisis countries, at least since 2014.
But the talks are also part of a more easing US policy towards Venezuela, which many analysts say is related to growing global demand for non-Russian oil sources. Venezuela is said to be holds the largest oil reserves of any country.
The United States is a supporter of the dialogue in Venezuela, not a participant.
The Biden administration official said that any action involving Chevron in Venezuela is not a response to energy prices.
“This is about the regime taking the necessary steps to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” the person said.
The official added that any new permits would have an expiration date and would prevent Venezuela from receiving profits from Chevron’s oil sales, explaining that the Biden administration “will retain the power to modify or revoke the license.” permission if the Maduro regime does not negotiate in good faith.” trust.”
For years, the Trump administration has tried to weaken Mr. Maduro through sanctions and isolation, recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president and pull top Washington diplomats out of the country. Caracas.
The Biden administration has opted to be more involved.
In June, the US ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, now working in neighboring Colombia, flew to Caracas to meet with government and opposition leaders. In October, the United States be lenient Maduro’s wife’s two grandchildren in exchange for seven Americans detained in Venezuela. The grandchildren were sentenced to 18 years in prison for conspiring to smuggle cocaine.
It will take years for Venezuela’s neglected oil infrastructure to have an impact on global markets. However, with no sign that tensions between Russia and the West are likely to ease soon, some leaders believe the wait is worth it.
“I think energy is one of the things that has enabled Biden to take the rather bold step of communicating directly” with the Maduro government, said Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. . Venezuela for more than two decades.
However, he warned that America’s softening of Venezuela predates the war in Ukraine.
“Energy is one factor” in strategic change, he said, but “it is not the only factor.”
Once one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America, Venezuela’s economy thrived on oil. But mismanagement and corruption by leaders pursuing socialist ideals have plunged the economy into turmoil, while Mr. Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, have withdrawn. its democratic institutions.
The situation has fueled the largest cross-border migration crisis in the Western Hemisphere, with more than 7 million Venezuelans – a quarter of the population – fleeing, according to the United Nations. Recently, record number of Venezuelans arrived at the US border, most of them walk through a messy forest called Darién Gap to get there.
The talks in Mexico are believed to be part of a series of meetings between the Venezuelan government and the opposition. Much of the opposition hopes that political concessions will be the next step on the agenda.
Mr. Maduro is focused on lifting US sanctions, which will help him improve the economy — and possibly win the presidential election already slated for 2024.
Venezuela’s opposition has long said its goal is to push Mr. Maduro to set free and fair conditions so they have a chance to oust him in that election.
Mr. Guaidó recently called that vote “the door to democracy, freedom and family reunification.”
In the past, Mr. Maduro controlled the vote by banning many opposition figures from politics, imprisoning others, and co-opting multiple political parties. He held elections to show legitimacy.
Speaking on state television about the Mexican talks this week, Mr. Maduro said he wanted to make it clear: “Nobody can impose anything on us, not today, not tomorrow, never.”
The United States still recognizes Mr Guaidó as the country’s president, although his global influence has dwindled significantly after efforts to back him were unsuccessful in ousting Mr. Maduro.
Energy expert Monaldi said the deal with Chevron is more than symbolic — within two years, the company could pump more than 200,000 barrels a day in Venezuela, adding to the roughly 765,000 barrels pumped daily today. , according to Argus, an energy expert. industry supervision.
For the United States and the opposition, the negotiations are a gamble.
On the one hand, just getting Mr. Maduro to negotiate and you’ve won, and a $3 billion humanitarian deal could be a major step toward alleviating suffering.
On the other hand, Mr. Gunson said the aid and agreement with Chevron could improve economic conditions, enhance Mr. Maduro’s credibility.
However, he has not yet given up on the political front.
“That’s why the people in the administration who are pushing this policy are biting their nails,” Mr. Gunson said. “Because if Maduro basically just said, ‘Thank you very much,’ and didn’t make any concessions, then they would look pretty stupid.”
Isayen Herrera contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela and Clifford Krauss from Houston.
