Another version of the Warriors vs. Cavaliers NBA Finals game? Basketball-Reference project rematch in 2022

Stephen Curry and the Warriors are rolling as we near the midpoint of the 2021-22 NBA season, owning the best record in the NBA with a 27-7 scoreline.

With Curry playing as an MVP contender, Draymond Green playing as a Defensive of the Year nominee and the return of All-Star keeper Klay Thompson on the horizon, it’s hard to argue with Golden’s case. State as an NBA championship contender.

Basketball-Reference “Probability Playoff” tool agreed, giving the Warriors 31.1% the NBA’s best chance of qualifying for the 2022 NBA Finals, creating a 41.1% conference best chance of winning the West. (Basketball-Reference’s “Playoff Probability” tool gives results based on 10,000 simulations for the rest of the season, including knockouts.)

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If you haven’t clicked that link, what do you think the team has the next highest odds to win against West?

Your mind might go to the Phoenix Suns, who have the second best record in the NBA with a 26-7 record, or the Utah Jazz, who have the third best record in the NBA with a 24-9 record.

Judging by the league’s current standings, the “Playoff Probability” tool supports that, ranking the Jazz and Suns by second and third best odds to win the West, respectively.

So now we know yes some the accuracy behind this tool – aside from the Lakers (0.0%) having less chance of winning the NBA title than the Timberwolves (0.1%) – what does it tell us for the Eastern Conference?

Believe it or not, the “Playoff Probabilities” tool tells us we’ll have the fifth version of the Warriors vs Cavaliers NBA Finals in 2022 but this time around, it’s going to look significantly different than that. four previous meetings from 2015 to 2018.

You have read correctly. The Rising Cavaliers surprisingly have the highest odds to win in the East, according to Basketball-Reference’s Playoff Probability tool.

This tool predicts the Cavaliers to finish with a 52-30 record, giving them a 41.5% chance to win the game and a 16.7 (!)% chance to win the NBA title – the highest in the East hitherto.

That’s right, more than the reigning Bucks and star-studded Nets champions.

The Cavaliers have been one of the nicest surprises of the 2021-22 season, owning a 20-14 record, good for the fifth-best record in the convention. Behind a breakout season from Darius Garland and a brick wall of defense with Jarrett Allen and Rookie of the Year nominee Evan Mobley, Cleveland has revived itself in the years since LeBron James left for the Lakers.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with end-of-season injuries from Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio, but with the second-best defensive stats in the league at 103.4 points per 100 possessions, their strongest asset. Cleveland is still intact.

How realistic is it for this young Cavaliers team to overtake Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, the Big 3 of the Nets or talented teams like the Heat and Bulls this season? Probably not as likely as this “Playoff Probability” tool predicts.

But wouldn’t it be fun to see the fifth edition – albeit significantly different from the first four – of the Cavaliers-Warriors NBA Finals in 2022?

Talk about a Finals that no one saw coming.