Summary weekend conflict over Gaza had an all-too-familiar end: dozens of Palestinians were killed, including militia leaders as well as children, and many homes were damaged or destroyed, mostly due to Israeli air strikes. but some by Palestinian fires.
But there is something different from the usual skirmishes: Hamas, the de facto civilian government in Gaza, remains on the sidelines. A smaller Muslim group, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, took the lead in firing the rockets – more than 1,000 of them – and bearing the brunt of the Israeli air strikes, which began on Friday. to combat what Israel sees as an impending jihadist attack.
While not unprecedented, Hamas’ decision confirms the complex and shifting role the movement has played since it took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. It also demonstrates contradictions. conflict among Palestinian Muslim fighters about how best to fight Israel, while highlighting both Iran’s influence – which supports both Hamas and jihad – and the limits of that support.
Hamas remains a military force that opposes the existence of Israel, and is considered a terrorist group by Israel and the United States. But unlike jihad, it is also a government and a social movement. Although authoritarian, Hamas is sensitive to public opinion in the region and must also deal, if only indirectly, with Israel to support the most limited aspects of the 15-year Israel-Egypt blockade, implemented contest after this group came to power and died out. conditions in Gaza.
By fueling the fire over the weekend, Hamas showed sensitivity to Palestinian fatigue at the prospect of another confrontation with Israel, at least the sixth of Hamas’ tenure. It also suggests that Hamas has been wary of losing some of the small but important economic measures Israel has introduced in Gaza since. the last major confrontation in May 2021including 14,000 Israeli work permits boosted the strip’s economy.
At a press conference with reporters on Monday, a senior Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter more freely, said that Israel’s policy on providing more work permits Actions over the past year have played a key role in keeping Hamas out of this round. fight. This will encourage Israel to step up its approach going forward, the official said.
While no one expects the underlying dynamics in Gaza to change, let alone the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, some analysts, diplomats and officials hope that perceived success of this trade-off would encourage Israel to ease more restrictions in the future, further reducing the likelihood of violence.
“Hamas does not want war at the moment,” said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Palestinian politics at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “There is a more pragmatic relationship between Hamas and Israel that has developed. To some extent, it can be mutual.”
Publicly, Hamas and Jihad have expressed solidarity with each other during and after the weekend’s conflict, and promised to join forces again in the future, just as they did in previous skirmishes. there in 2008, 2014 and 2021.
Essentially, both groups have similar goals and ideologies. They have their roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, the global Islamic movement, and seek to end Israel and its replacement by a Palestinian Islamic state.
Muhammad al-Hindi, an official of Islamic Jihad, told a Turkish television station on Sunday that there was no rift between the two groups. “Our relationship with Hamas is becoming stronger day by day,” al-Hindi said. “We’ve been in battles together, and we’ll be in battles side by side, together.”
In a statement posted on its website on Saturday, Hamas said it remained “united” with the Islamic Jihad, adding that “fighters of all factions are confronting aggression.” this as one.”
But the different behavior of the two groups in the conflict reflects their different current priorities as well as historical narratives.
Founded more than four decades ago, Jihad is bigger, smaller, and primarily concerned with violent opposition to Israel. It has little benefit even when it comes to participating in Palestinian political structures.
Hamas, founded in 1987, is relatively more pragmatic – a social and political movement as well as a militant movement.
It opposes the efforts of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people, to seek a peace agreement with Israel in the 1990s, waging a deadly counter-terrorism campaign. to derail that process.
But Hamas still participates in Palestinian elections, winning the last legislative election, in 2006. It operates in unity governments within the Palestinian Authority, even after winning it. Gaza from government control. And in recent years, it has shown a willingness to negotiate a lasting truce with Israel and stop recognizing its legitimacy.
“Ideologically, they don’t really differ much – both believe that Israel is not,” said Azzam Tamimi, an expert on political Islam and a scholar affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. right to exist in Palestine. “But Hamas sees itself as a leader of society, not just a protest movement.”
Both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad receive financial and logistical support from Iran. But their divergent approaches in recent days emphasize that Islamic Jihad – whose leader is Ziad al-Nakhala, who visited Tehran during the conflict – is more vulnerable to Iranian influence than Hamas.
During the Syrian civil war, the jihadist organization has never broken up with Iran’s close ally Syria, despite the Syrian government’s war against insurgents, such as Islamic State Jihad and Hamas, Sunni Muslims. However, Hamas severed ties with Damascus a decade ago, in solidarity with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, and only recently restored them.
“From the very beginning, the Muslims decided that the Iranian revolution was a model, a beacon. He added, Hamas “has always insisted that relations with Iran must be on the basis of cooperation, not bound by any strings.”
Islamic Jihad’s battle with Israel may boost its popularity among some Palestinians, but previous polls suggest it could have the opposite effect in Gaza itself – especially after several rockets of this group appeared. wrong shot and landed in civilian areas in the strip, the video appears to show. After a similar round fighting in 2019where Hamas also stayed out of the conflict, almost half the Gazans Hamas felt it was right to do so, and only a third disagreed.
Some Israelis hope that Hamas, which is trying to maintain support in Gaza, will continue to stay out of future conflicts if given more economic incentives to do so.
“I want to speak directly to the residents of the Gaza Strip and tell them: There is another way,” Israeli Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, said in a statement Monday night. “We know how to protect ourselves from anyone who threatens us, but we also know how to provide jobs, livelihoods and a life of dignity to those who desire to live beside us in peace. .”
Yonatan Touval, an analyst at Mitvim, an Israeli research group, said the situation even presents “an opportunity to advance far-reaching agreements between the two sides – first of all, those related to the rebuilding of Gaza”.
But few expect small economic moves to fundamentally change Hamas’ broader outlook, especially while the lockdown remains in place. Israel’s issuance of 14,000 work permits has raised the incomes of thousands of families, but has not changed the lives of many. In a densely populated region of 2 million people, nearly half of working-age adults are unemployed and only one in 10 Gazans have access to clean water.
“Without a more sustainable long-term political vision for Gaza, the truce with Israel will eventually reach the limit of what it can offer to Gaza and Hamas,” said analyst Lovatt. “.
Isabel Kershner and Hiba Yazbek contribution report.
