This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC’s senior market commentator, with ideas for trends, stocks, and market statistics. Stocks wind around with the S&P 500 index slightly lower, still based on benign season patterns, the economy stabilizes if the economy stalls, and positioning remains cautious but has come a long way. for a short time. The specifics of this rally off the October 13 bear market lows are earning some credit from the arbiter of such things, with widespread spikes from over-reading. Deep selling and fewer stocks create new lows in October vs. June. The band’s refusal to counter the bad news (consumer price index report, megacap tech revenue growth, etc.) the average stock’s resilience “against the top-heavy indexes is what reassures them. The exit pace hasn’t been reached. The S&P 500 still has plenty of ways to stay ahead of the next key test – the line.” 10-month downtrend and 200-day average – where the previous broad and impressive rally from mid-June to mid-August stopped against the Federal Reserve, but hopefully common ground has emerged between investors and central bankers’ views on destination and timing. common destination. and more, thereby bringing the Fed’s interest rate to around 5% in a matter of months. This is not to say the stock has absorbed that and of course all of its effects, or whether that proves over-tightening. ps recession economy. Yet again, the market is trying to make peace with a new higher interest rate threshold that few could have foreseen even six months ago. Led by Big Tech leaders that still carry high valuations for supposedly predictable predictability, adverse reactions to companies lacking sales and earnings forecasts is very cruel. Profit forecasts continue to decline, albeit at a measured pace in the fourth quarter, with 2023 a mystery. Fairly high levels of absolute income, a much healthier consumer/trade balance sheet than during the previous downturn, and decent nominal GDP growth, all offer some hope that the income impact may not be as serious. Market breadth is fairly even, although the NYSE has more new highs than new lows, another sign of reduced selling intensity in graded stocks. VIX rallied half a point during a typical Monday special rebuild. It has edged down from recent highs, with volatility hedging buttons still active around the Fed meeting, Friday’s jobs report and the next CPI release. The weekend column gives insight into seasonal factors, which often fail enough for people to suspect them. This seems to get them to “work” as often as possible.
