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Al Gore Nobel lecture version – Watts Up With That?


From JunkScience.com

Steve Milloy

At the opening of COP-27, Al Gore said:

We all have a credibility problem: We’re talking and we’re starting to act, but we’re not doing enough.

Gore was right the first part – the whole climate alarm movement has reliability issues as demonstrated previously here and here. Gore himself contributed much to this prestigious issue over the years starting from notorious scam movie An inconvenient truth (2006). The film is so full of errors that a British judge request in October 2007 that it carried a warning label before it was shown to students.

Despite the court ruling, the Nobel Peace Prize committee awarded the 2007 prize to Gore and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Gore received the Nobel Peace Prize in December 2007 and said “Nobel Lecture” in which he made some doomsday claims. Now, 15 years later, as the climate alarmed community meets in Egypt at COP-27, it is the right time to consider Gore’s doomsday views covered in the Presentation about his Nobel Prize with reality to date.

Current temperature

Gore stated:

The earth has a fever. And the fever is on the rise.

Reality 2022:

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the global average temperature in 2020 is 58.8°F compared with a fever being a body temperature exceeding 98.6°F or more. So there is no “fever”.

Future temperature

Gore statement:

“Svante Arrhenius has calculated that the average temperature of the Earth will increase by many degrees if we double the amount of [carbon dioxide] in the atmosphere.”

Reality 2022:

We’re only about 50 percent of the way to doubling the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, but consider where we are and what the future might look like.

At current CO2 levels — that is, 50 percent of the way to double pre-industrial levels — United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate that we have experienced about 1.1°C of global warming since 1850-1900. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels would then result in a simple extrapolation of an average future temperature of 2.2°C.

The New York Times report that by 2100, when the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will more than double from pre-industrial CO2 levels, the level of global warming forecast by alarmists will be higher than 2.1 °C to 2.9°C above pre-industrial times. temperature.

While these estimated temperatures are certainly “degrees” above the pre-industrial average, they are certainly not “many degrees” higher.

Global temperature relative to atmospheric CO2 is a controversial topic and worthy of discussion beyond the scope of this effort, but suffice it to say that even the IPCC’s calculations contradict the claim. Gore’s on “multi-degree” warming due to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.

2. Polar ice cap

Gore statement:

On September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented anxiety that the Arctic ice cap was ‘falling off a cliff’. One study estimates that it could disappear completely in the summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by US Navy researchers this weekend, warns that could happen in just seven years. Seven years from now.

Reality 2022:

The Arctic ice cap has never “fallen off the cliff,” not in 2014 or as predicted or now in 2022. Each data from the European Intergovernmental Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the Arctic reached an annual summer low of about 4 million square kilometers in 2012. In 2022, the annual summer minimum increased by about 25% to more than 5 million square kilometers of sea ice. As Gore predicts, not only is 5 million square kilometers of sea ice a far cry from being ice-free, but the annual minimum sea ice in the Arctic is unlikely to be ice-free by 2030 either.

3. Droughts and melting glaciers

Gore statement:

Over the last few months, it has become increasingly difficult to misinterpret the signs that our world is spinning. Major cities in North and South America, Asia, and Australia have almost run out of water due to major droughts and melting ice.

Reality 2022:

No major city in the world is nearly dry for any reason.

Droughts always happen and will continue to happen. No ongoing drought is unprecedented, and no drought can be linked to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the ongoing drought in the western United States is comparable to the drought that occurred in the 1500s, in February 2022. research in the magazine Nature Climate change.

Super-drought in the western United States is not unheard of, even known at the time of Al Gore’s Nobel Lecture, as evidenced by the chart below printed in Cook, Edward R. , et al. “Drought in North America: reconstruction, causes and consequences.” Earth Science Assessment 81.1 (2007): 93-134. The graph shows the recent natural history of the American West including super-droughts lasting up to 200 years. These droughts occurred long before the industrial use of fossil fuels and during comparable warm periods.

As for Gore’s claim of melting glaciers, many have receded since the end of the so-called Little Ice Age, which lasted from the 1300s to the 1800s. The coldest point of the Ice Age. Galaxies are thought to have occurred around the mid-1600s, and the Northern Hemisphere has warmed since then. This warming predates the industrial age by 200 years. But glacier degradation is more complicated than mere warming.

First, recently research temperature in the Alps reports that there has been no significant winter warming in the Alps since the 1970s.

Next and like the US Geological Survey shownGlaciers can also recede due to sunshine (think of the effect of clear skies on snow after snowfall even at sub-freezing temperatures) and sublimation (why does the air dry in freezer shrinks the ice block).

That is estimates For example, the Alps receive 200 more hours of sunshine per year than in the late 19th century.

There is also the curious fact and the inconvenient fact that glaciers are receding repeatedly that reveal recent human activity is only possible when less ice is available.

Finally, and contrary to the notion that global warming is causing the massive disappearance of snow, data shows that snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter has increased since the 1960s.

4. Agriculture

Gore statement:

Desperate farmers are losing their livelihood.

Reality 2022:

While farming is always a risky profession, the implication in Gore’s statement is that agriculture is at risk due to global warming. That is it?

The New York Times report in June 2022 that global primary cereal production increased by 52% between 2000-2020. That 9.3 billion tonnes record equates to 1.20 tonnes per person compared with 1.0 tonnes per person in 2000.

Moreover, research Credit warming and better weather to increase corn production.

And whatever slight warming is happening is extend cultivation area.

5. Climate Refugees

Gore stated:

People in the icy Arctic and on the Pacific low islands are planning to evacuate the places they have long called home. Unprecedented wildfires have forced half a million people from their homes in one country and triggered a national emergency that almost brought down the government in another. Climate refugees have migrated into areas already inhabited by people with different cultures, religions and traditions, increasing the potential for conflict… Millions of people have been displaced due to floods major floods in South Asia, Mexico and 18 countries in Africa.

Reality 2022:

Let’s tackle first, Gore’s claim of “unprecedented wildfires”. a year 2016 research According to a report published by the Royal Society, “global burn area generally appears to have decreased over the past decades, and there is growing evidence that there are fewer fires globally today than with the previous centuries”.

To climate refugees, Gore’s claims are vague, though utterly bewildering. December 2019 research In Nature Climate change pointed out that the topic of climate migration is not well researched and that there are many misleading claims and myths about it, some of which are undoubtedly caused by Al Gore himself.

6. Storms

Gore stated:

Stronger storms in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans threatened entire cities.

Reality 2022:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration measures global tropical cyclone activity according to the Cumulative Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Meteorologist Ryan Maue concludes that there has been a downward trend for the ACE index since 1989, which is the opposite of what Gore asserts.

7. Death due to extreme heat

Gore stated:

As extreme temperatures rose, tens of thousands of people died.

Reality 2022:

First, extreme temperatures don’t rise. In the US, where we have the best data, heatwaves have decreased in frequency and intensity over the past 100 years, according to the most recent US National Climate Assessment. graph below.

Not surprising, research also found that the number of deaths from heatwaves in the US decreased between 1975 and 2018.

8. Deforestation and species extinction

Gore stated:

We are recklessly burning and clearing forests and driving more and more species to extinction. The very web of life on which we depend is being torn and torn.

Reality 2022:

Thanks to mild warming and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Earth is greener (that is, more vegetation, including trees) than ever before, follow to NASA. NASA reports: “Greening represents an increase in vegetation and trees covering an area equivalent to twice the size of the continental United States.

For forest fires causing extinction, research report opposite side, the opposite.

Collectively, there is no evidence that global warming has led to the extinction of a single species, despite what the Australian government has stated, as report via American Science.

Unfortunately for the Australian government’s claim, however, Australia’s coasts and islands have expanded in size. So if rodents are indeed going extinct, it’s unlikely it’s due to sea level rise.

Inference

In the 15 years since Gore received the Nobel Peace Prize, not a single apocalyptic climate prediction has come true. “We have a credibility problem,” he said at the opening of COP-27. Real, he do.

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