The prolonged cool weather makes us temperature below normal last month, but it’s still a dry month overall. We also preview the Atlantic hurricane season is currently underway.
Temperature Hold in Test
Several cloudy days and cool air masses from the north have kept our temperatures at or below seasonal normals last month. The National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports a preliminary statewide mean temperature of 64.4°For ours the coolest day of May over the past 129 years.
The month begins with a worm upper level low pressure system push far south, which keeps us high temperature on May 3 generally in the 60s, with some high altitude sites stuck in the 40s all day.
After a long week of warm-up that motivated us back to the 80’sanother breath of cool air came by May 15with reinforcements only three days later.
Our ultimate – and perhaps most important – cooldown of the month has arrived May 27 as high pressure forms from the northwest and low pressure begins to move along the coast.
With strong northeasterly winds blowing on the coast, the eastern half of the state was shrouded in clouds and rain, and high temperature on that Saturday has never crossed the 60s in most areas. Our ECONet station at Sandhills Research Station in Jackson Springs Topped out at just 59°F, this is the only day with May 11 there since 1997 in which temperatures did not reach at least 60°F.
Humidity hadn’t reached the Mountains at that time during Memorial Day weekend, which left an unusual drop as the state’s warmest locations were in the west, including Murphy And Hot waterfallboth recorded high temperatures of 77°F.
On days like these, temperatures in many areas are restrained by persistent cloud cover. Raleigh there are 533 hours – or 72% of the month – with cloudy or overcast skies. That’s the second most in any May there since 1973, after just 566 hours in May 2009.
Most areas ended the month with average temperatures 1 to 3 degrees lower than usual. Greensboro had the 25th coolest May in the past 120 years, while New Bern associated with the 9th great May since 1949 and Plymouth tied to the 8th most interesting since 1945.
Another measure of our cool May is how many areas hit the 90 degree mark. Although the first 90 degree mean day occurs in mid to late May – a time when we usually match last year – only some parts of the Sandhills and the Southern Coastal Plain are so warm until 2023.
That includes Wilmingtonreached 90°F on May 8 and 93°F on May 9, and Lumbertonpeaked at 90°F just once this year, on May 9, compared with 14 warm days through the end of May last year.
Late Rain Doesn’t Save Dry Month
Despite Mother Nature’s best efforts on our soggy final weekend, we couldn’t make it through the dry early part of the month. The NCEI reports statewide average rainfall of 3.11 inches and ours May 37 is dry since 1895.
At the beginning of the month, rain is hard to come and some southeast locations such as Wilmington went 13 days in a row without any measurable rainfall. That area was eventually flooded by more than 4 inches of rain on May 19, causing flooded road in the counties of Brunswick and New Hanover.
Elsewhere, there were noticeable downpours north of Piedmont on May 13-14 involving showers along a cold front, and in the mountains above May 15-16.
The wettest and most widespread rain event occurred over Memorial Day weekend. More than 3 inches falls in the Central Mountains and more than 2 inches have been recorded in the Triad and our northwest counties, as well as just along the coast.
While much of Piedmont and the Coastal Plain eventually broke the streaks wet weekends Some western sites are not so lucky at the beginning of the month. End of May, Asheville has seen measurable rainfall for ten consecutive weekends and on 16 of the 21 weekends so far this year.
Some areas ended the month wetter than usual, including New Bernwith the wettest May 28 in 71 years, and WilmingtonMay 26 had the wettest date and was just over an inch above normal.
Dry spots per area include City of Elizabeth2 inches below normal in the 12th driest month on record; Raleigh, only about half of the normal monthly rainfall on the dry May 19; And plateau2.6 inches below normal in May, the 34th driest in 121 years.
While the remaining moisture from us wet april delaying the appearance of any impact, several areas with Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions have emerged on the state’s drought map. Currently, parts of the southern Piedmont and central Coastal Plains are classified as Abnormally Dry. These areas missed the heaviest April rainfall and the end of the climate spring drier than usual.
The far west was also dry, and areas west of Waynesville got less than half an inch of rain over Memorial Day weekend. With flow falls below normal in that corner of the state, which could be the next area to be officially classified as dry with no rain.
Storm season hangs in the balance
At this time a year ago, we entered the Atlantic hurricane season of 2022 with high confidence when seeing many activities throughout the basin. After all, the in situ La Niña pattern is favorable for hurricanes to form, and under similar conditions to the previous year, there have been 21 named storms in 2021.
But thanks to the nearly two-month gap between early July and early September, it’s just an average season. Nicole in mid-November is fourteenth and last named stormconsistent with the 30-year Atlantic average.
Entering this hurricane season, background atmospheric patterns have changed from a year ago, which gives this season’s outlook a different flavor after three consecutive La Niña years.
There are a few key factors expected to affect this year’s tropical activity, and like the weights on the scale, some of them tend to balance out others.
In the Pacific Ocean, the prolonged La Nina phenomenon was quickly replaced by Emerging El Nino. If it continues to grow and mature as expected this summer and fall, it has the potential to strengthen upper-Atlantic winds, which could rip through developing storms.
On the other hand, the ocean surface in the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than usual at the present time, which should support increase work. In addition, the West African Monsoon is predicted to be particularly active this summer, possibly sending more moisture-rich tropical waves across the Atlantic.
With competing factors in mind, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicts near-normal activity this season, with 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. The 30-year average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
This season’s first named storm, Arlene, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 2. The National Hurricane Center also confirmed that a low-pressure system off the Northeast coast in mid-January met the criteria for a subtropical storm, even though it was not assigned — and therefore, unnamed — at that time. that point.
Although NOAA predicts a 40% chance of near-normal activity, there is also a 30% chance of working above normal and a 30% chance of working below normal, indicating how sensitive the results are. For the adult-scale models when playing.
A thumb on the scale in a weaker El Niño may encourage more activity, while changes in local conditions such as cooler water or Sahara Desert dust blowing across the Atlantic can limit the number of hurricanes.
Statistics for North Carolina shows that on average we see one hurricane making direct landfall every 2 years. Our last storm to make landfall is Typhoon Isaias in 2020, although we have seen the impact of several hurricanes since then. In 2021, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred drenched the southern mountains, while last year the remnants of both storms Ian And Nicole causing heavy rain and gusty winds across the state.
No matter what the outlook shows or how long it’s been since the storm hit your area, it’s always smart to Prepare for potential impacts. After all, nowhere in North Carolina is immune to damage from tropical storms, whether it’s high tides, freshwater flooding, high winds, or even landslides.
