According to Bank of America, Biopharma companies are becoming more clinically successful in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and obesity, and are adopting new approaches in the field of oncology, and that is creating many super blockbuster drugs. Analyst Geoff Meacham has identified 20 drugs with the potential to generate $10 billion or more in annual sales by 2030 across the range of companies he covers. “Based on our analysis, most super blockbusters share several characteristics including: 1) large solvable populations, 2) long treatment times, and 3) favorable prices. beneficial,” Meacham said in a Friday research note. “That said, the greatest drugs often have one, or preferably case two, of these attributes.” For example, a drug like the Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty (Pfizer/BioNTech) or Spikevax (Moderna), could achieve super-blockbuster status cheaply but with a huge patient market. A drug could also be successful in this group if it treats fewer patients at a higher cost, such as Merck’s Keytruda cancer treatment. The seven drugs on Meacham’s list are already on the market and have hit the $10 billion mark or more. These include Pfizer Paxlovid’s Covid-19 treatment, AbbVie Humira’s arthritis treatment, and Gilead Biktarvy’s HIV/AIDS treatment. That means some of these drugs may have ended their peak sales period. Meacham puts Humira and Covid vaccines in this category. That left 13 drugs that have yet to reach the mark. Some of the names on this list are still in the early stages of development and therefore carry some risks, such as the possibility of the drug not breaking through regulatory barriers and meeting the goals of clinical trials. or being pushed back on prices by health insurance companies. and coverage. Meacham has previously said that one of the drugs in this barrel, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, could be the first $100 billion drug. It has been approved as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, and sales are off to a strong start. But many investors are hopeful about its potential as a treatment for obesity. On Thursday, tirzepatide received word from the Food and Drug Administration that it would be fast-tracking its review of this application. That means tirzepatide could win approval to treat obesity as early as late 2023 or early 2024. However, Meacham’s effective sales forecast is based on expectations that the class This medicine will also be used to treat other conditions such as NASH, sleep apnea, kidney disease. disease and heart failure. “From our analysis, we think Lilly’s tirzepatide is able to capture all 3 of the market drivers and in impressive fashion with significant development investment made across multiple indices. In our view, this is undervalued by investors due to its focus only on T2D, and he said.So far, Lilly’s stock is up 18%. hit an all-time high of $341.70. In cancer treatment, Keytruda’s Opdivo and Bristol Myers have achieved blockbuster status, but biologics companies are looking into immunocompromised cancer therapies One example Meacham cites is Opdualag, which has been approved for the treatment of metastatic melanoma.Bristol is studying its potential as a treatment for liver and lung cancer, which, if successful, could have could accelerate Opdualag’s sales growth significantly, he said. To date, Bristol shares are up nearly 12% while shares of Merck increased 14% over the same period. Finding effective treatments for Alzheimer’s disease has proven challenging in the past, but investors have been encouraged by recent results from a large, phased clinical trial. end for lecanemab, a treatment from Biogen and Eisai. The new drug appears to help patients more than Biogen’s previous treatment, Aduhelm. That drug won FDA approval but then ran into difficulties after Medicare limited its coverage. But the new drug appears to be more successful in slowing patients’ cognitive decline. Hope for this drug spurred Biogen’s share. To date, the stock is up more than 42% year-over-year. Lilly also has an Alzheimer’s treatment, donanemab. Updates from its phase 3 trial are expected mid-2023. Meacham said he hopes that multiple Alzheimer’s treatments can coexist due to the large number of patients. “We expect meaningful growth for lecanemab if it can get widespread coverage from [the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services]and could become Biogen’s best-selling product and offset the revenue erosion in other products,” he said.