By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Happy New Year everybody!
I can’t think of a better way to start the 2022 race year than by beating a trio of Road to the Kentucky Derby prep on New Year’s Day.
The $150,000 Jerome S. at Aqueduct, the $100,000 Sham S. (G3) in Santa Anita and the $250,000 Smarty Jones S. in Oaklawn Park were the highlights of the afternoon. All three events awarded the Kentucky Derby on a 10-4-2-1 basis to their top four finishers.
Take a look at our selections:
Jerome S. at Aqueduct
I feel there are many ways to go on this one-way street, which has attracted eight starters. Speed
# 8 Hagler (4-1) is a reasonable choice after wiring for the claimant the option allows seven segments at the Aqueduct, while the run
#1 Cooke Creek (5-2) must be respected following Belmont Park’s Nashua S. (G3) runner-up attempt.
But I’ll try and beat them both with #3 Ohtwoohthreefive (7-2), a jockey is testing the ground for the first time. With six starts under his belt, including five runs a mile or more, Ohtwoohthreefive brings a wealth of experience to the Jerome field.
Ohtwoohthreefive is the first winner of four one-mile races in Belmont, having spent the last two competing with the holding company. He practically ran a winning race in Central Park 1 1/16 mile S. at the Aqueduct on November 27, tracking the slow pace and taking command before taking second place by arrow.
Ohtwoohthreefive put competitive Beyer and Brisnet speed numbers into the mix, and trainer George Weaver won by a top 26% margin with the horses moving from grass to ground. The fact that Ohtwoohthreefive is the son of winner Belmont S. (G1) Union Rags (the best runner usually shines on the ground) and Ohtwoohthreefive is a logical choice to beat Jerome.
Sham S. (G3) at Santa Anita
Coach Bob Baffert has won the Sham record seven times since its first edition in 2001, so many bets will be intrigued by Baffert practitioners. #3 Newgrange and Number 4 Rockefeller. Both bring solid marks to the table: Newgrange was a brilliant first-time winner in a six-time sprint in Del Mar, while Rockefeller beat Cooke Class by 2 3/4 length in Belmont’s Nashua S. (G3) two months ago.
But I’ll think outside the box a bit with #2 Oviatt Class. True enough, this long-running pony is not guaranteed to receive an ideal setup, as Newgrange and Rockefeller are considered the only certain speed players on paper. But in terms of proven capabilities, the Oviatt Class has a lot to offer.
Indeed, the Oviatt Class has shown promise since its roughly two turns on dirt track. The winner of the 4-team rally to win a quarter of a mile race length at Del Mar, the Oviatt Class leaves a pair of Class 1 tests on Santa Anita’s Road to Kentucky Derby. First, he finished third in the American Pharoah S. (G1), reaching 3 1/4 lengths across the final track to finish two years younger than two-year-old men’s Corniche champion. Then, the Oviatt Class finished fifth behind Corniche in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), a race in which the Oviatt Class struggled before claiming a meaningful spot down the condominium.
The son of Preakness winner S. (G1), Bernardini escaped mare by Tiznow Horse of the Year twice, Oviatt Class bred to improve as an adult. I am optimistic that student Keith Desormeaux can deliver a winning effort while dropping out of Sham.
Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park
The mile-long Smarty Jones is one of those races where you can randomly pick any horse and feel good about your chances. That’s how the competitive 14-horse school appeared on paper.
There’s a lot of direction to go, with the first winner of Oaklawn #1 Dash Attack (12-1), Runner-up Lively Shively S. No. 10 Haircut line (4-1) and finished fourth in Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) #14 Ben Diesel (4-1) among the attractive candidates. But I will take a rather unconventional approach and support the morning line love #3 Brewer (3-1).
To be sure, Home Brew has hot connections in his corner; jockey Florent Geroux hit 12 to 47 (26%) to start the game against Oaklawn, while coach Brad Cox hit 9 to 23 (39%). Together, they’ve won by 25% over the past two months, and one of those wins is thanks to Home Brew’s support. The son of Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, was best in the race for the one-mile allowance option on December 4 in Oaklawn, leading the entire score by 3 3/4 length.
Home Brew has practiced a lot since then, and Cox won by 37% with the horses running long for the second time, so I believe we haven’t seen the best Home Brew has to offer. There’s no frenetic pace in the Smarty Jones field, so if Home Brew secures a comfortable spot on or near the lead, he could win his share debut.
Now it’s your turn! Who’s your favorite at the New Year’s Day Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
