With Week 0 set to begin college football During the regular season, it’s not just the games that attract the attention of bettors. Of course, College Football Playoff odds are quite popular. Likewise, odds on total regular-season wins are also popular.
Especially for a team that is expected to be in the race for the national championship.
“Everything this summer has been going State of Ohio“To win a national championship, win the Big Ten, go to the playoffs, go undefeated and win by over 10.5,” said BetMGM trading director Seamus Magee.
Magee shares his insights on the teams that are making the most notable moves — both Over and Under — in college football’s regular-season win totals.
Total Season Wins: On Action
Ohio State is the second consensus odds-on pick to win the College Football Playoff. BetMGM has the Buckeyes at +325, right behind the +300 favorites Georgia.
So expectations are clearly high in Columbus, and Ohio State’s 10.5-win regular season certainly helps meet those expectations.
Oddsmakers certainly see that happening. At BetMGM, Over 10.5 is a -175 handicap, meaning you’d have to bet $175 to win $100 (for a total payout of $275). Conversely, Under 10.5 is a +145 handicap. If you think the Buckeyes will win 10 games or less, a $100 bet would return $145 (for a total payout of $245).
But early bettors are betting on the Over.
“The bettor [with us] “I can’t stop watching the Buckeyes, and I can’t say I blame them,” Magee said. “Everything coming out of Columbus sounds like this could be a generational Ohio State defense.”
However, a challenging Big Ten schedule now includes Oregon — yes, Oregon is in the Big Ten — could make an 11th win elusive.
“Midfielder Will Howard stepping into the spotlight now. And while the defense may make his job look easy, the games against Oregon, Penn State And Michigan will be a real test for Howard and this offense,” Magee said.
Remember when Nebraska was always good? That consistency has faded over the past few years. The Huskers have finished below .500 in each of the last seven seasons. In 2023, under new coach Matt Rhule, Nebraska finished 5-7.
But bettors and punters are a little more optimistic about the season. The Huskers’ win total for the season is 7.5, with the Over at -150 and the Under at +125.
“It’s been another hype year for Nebraska. But it looks like Matt Rhule is finally getting the Huskers on the right track,” Magee said. “They brought in a highly regarded QB in Dylan Raiola and just see Ohio State as one of the top teams in the Big 10.”
Raiola is a true rookie, which will certainly add to the challenge for the Huskers. But again, the bookmakers are tipping this squad at the moment.
“At BetMGM, Nebraska is among the favorites for the Big 10 and maybe even a playoff spot. I certainly don’t [discount] This team won eight games. I trust Matt Rhule, especially if Raiola is the real deal.”
You won’t see much writing about Indiana this season. Not in a Big Ten that includes national championship contender Ohio State, along with defending national champion Michigan, perennial stalwart Penn State and now Oregon.
But early action suggests bettors think the Hoosiers can reach at least 6-6. BetMGM has Indiana’s regular-season win total at 5.5, with the Over at -150 and the Under at +125. A new coach seems to be contributing to the optimism.
“Indiana hired Curt Cignetti from James Madisonthen hit the transfer portal hard. They brought in a number of players to help the program get off to a good start with a new coach,” Magee said. “Many oddsmakers believe the Hoosiers can make the playoffs in Year 1 under Cignetti.”
Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule — home games vs. Florida International, Western Illinois And Charlotte — could help the Hoosiers get halfway to the Over.
“The non-conference schedule looks like it’s three easy wins,” Magee said. “But there are some Big Ten games that they feel like they have to have to get there — State of Michigan, State of Maryland, UCLA University“
Florida feels like Nebraska at this point. The Gators are coming off a 5-7 campaign with no wins, while having their third straight losing season. Florida hasn’t reached double digit wins since going 11-2 in 2019.
And this year, expectations are low. BetMGM has the Gators’ regular-season win total at just 4.5. But right now, the Over is -155, and a fair number of BetMGM customers think Florida will win at least five.
“This is a very interesting thing. We’re pretty unbalanced at Over 4.5, for a team that has the toughest schedule in the country,” Magee said.
Indeed, the Gators have eight ranked teams on their 12-game schedule. That includes a brutal five-week stretch to close out the season: against No. 1 Georgia (neutral site), at No. 4 Texascompared to number 13 University of Louisianacompared to number 6 Miss Ole and at number 10 State of Florida.
“I think if you have a season where [QB] Gramm Mertz “If he improves from last year — when he played better — the Gators could surprise some teams,” Magee said. “There’s no denying the talent on this roster. But the last five games of the year are just a test. There’s a real world scenario where they lose five games in a row after their break.”
CFB Week 0 Player Props: Oregon’s Evan Stewart and Dillon Gabriel
Total Regular Season Wins: Ongoing
Heisman Trophy Winner Jayden Daniels move to American Football and Washington Commanders. As a result, BetMGM rates the Tigers’ regular season win total at just 9, with the Over at a very low -115 and the Under at -105.
Magee sees plenty of potential for coach Brian Kelly’s squad this season.
“I have a lot of uncertainty about this LSU team. I can see the Tigers going from 11-1 to 7-5,” he said. “LSU has to replace a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball, and the oddsmakers at BetMGM don’t see them winning 10 games.
“The start of the schedule is lighter than the second half, with trips to Kyle Field (Texas A&M University) and Swamp (Florida), along with home games against ‘Bama And Oklahoma“
The Tigers also host the sixth-ranked team Miss Ole this season
Dabo Swinney and Clemson are pretty used to double-digit win seasons, along with CFP appearances. From 2011-2022, the Tigers won 10 or more (including bowl/playoff games) every year.
However, Clemson was only 8-4 in the regular season last year. So even a win in the playoffs State of Kentucky failed to sustain a double-digit streak. This season, BetMGM opened the Tigers’ regular-season win total at 9.5, but that has now dropped to 9, with the Overs a modest favorite at -120 odds.
“In many cases, I think the split and the money line on win totals can almost act as a referendum on a program. In the age of the NIL and the transfer portal, Clemson hasn’t added a single transfer player to its roster,” Magee said.
That makes Clemson the only FBS team not to use the transfer portal.
“In turn, bettors flocked to Clemson’s win at Under 9.5 odds. There was still money pouring in at Under 9 odds,” Magee said.
Still, the Tigers have some bright spots, and perhaps they’ll have a chance to surpass their win total.
“On the other hand, I’m starting to change my mind about this Clemson team. The Tigers are basically getting their entire offensive line back and hopefully getting a sustained push on that front,” Magee said. “To be fair, the schedule isn’t in their favor: Georgia in Atlanta in Week 1, at Virginia Institute of Technology at the end of the season, at Florida State.
“Luckily for the Tigers, when they play Louisville And State of North Carolinaboth are off weeks and home weeks. I think the hate got a little out of control. In my opinion, this team still has the ability to win 10 games and make the ACC Finals.”
Georgia Institute of Technology
The Yellow Jackets will play their first game of the season against ACC foe and 10th-ranked Florida State on Saturday. It’s a neutral-site game in Dublin, Ireland, and Georgia Tech is a 10.5-point underdog.
So bookmakers and bettors have the Yellow Jackets at nearly 0-1 odds. BetMGM opened the season with Georgia Tech’s win total at 5.5 and has dropped to 5, with the Under at -115.
“Georgia Tech probably has the second or third toughest schedule in the country and is seeing a lot of people not believing they’re going to make it to a bowl game,” Magee said. “Under 5.5 is one of the most heavily bet Unders we’ve had this season.”
The Yellow Jackets face five ranked teams. Along with their opener against Florida State, Georgia Tech will face No. 7 Notre Dame Cathedral (neutral site), host number 19 Miami and No. 24 NC State, and finished the season ranked No. 1 Georgia.
“It’s easy to look at the schedule and say this team is not going to play in a bowl game,” Magee said. “But I like [coach] Brent Key. He’s really building something with this team. But the Yellow Jackets are going to have to steal a few away games if they want to have a chance at making the playoffs.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior correspondent for VegasInsider.com. He is a prominent national sports betting journalist. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him at @PatrickE_Vegas.
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