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2022 Mexico Open: Jon Rahm looks to regain his early-season form as the favorite at Vidanta Vallarta


In this day and age, it’s rare to see a golfer on a PGA Tour event with odds shorter than 8-1 to win a tournament. However, this week’s Mexico Open at Vidanta is an exception, because the gap between the best golfer on the scene – Jon Rahm – and the others is quite wide. As a result, Rahm has 9/2 odds to win his first tournament championship in 2022.

This is perhaps a surprise. It’s not that Rahm is so popular that his first Mexican Open title involves the PGA Tour (an event that dates back to the 1940s), but rather that Rahm hasn’t won since flipping the calendar. If you had told me Rahm would have sniffed May without a win the day he finished second to Cam Smith at the year’s inaugural Champions League, I would have laughed. But here we are.

Rahm hasn’t played bad golf this year, and after a narrow loss at Kapalua, he’s been special. He followed with three top 15 finishes in his next three starts with one of them being T3 at the Farmer’s Open at Torrey Pines, where he won the US Open championship last summer. Since that performance in January, he’s slowed down a bit. Well, fall out his speed. For 95% of PGA Tour players, this will be a dream year.

However, Rahm exists in a different dimension than your professional PGA Tour. He wins a lot and is therefore not content with not winning the way the average pro doesn’t.

Rahm’s last month was a letdown by his standards. A T55 at the Players Championship and T27 at masters Round 16 clamp appeared at WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. But it’s the big events that attract the best players to play their highest quality golf. Rahm has failed to do so in the biggest events so far this year, and that’s probably why he’s playing for a week on the Tour – in preparation for the PGA Championship at Southern Hills on end of May.

The good news for Rahm is that what he’s been sick of in the game is not detrimental in the long term. The Ryder Cup hero is controlling it like a monster – just as he used to control the ball. His tackles are still world class. As of January 1, he is the best dribbler in the world by a wide margin. He’s averaged 2.2 strokes per round on the PGA Tour, and his next closest competitor, Will Zalatoris, is 2.0.

Rahm’s problem so far has been his inability to capitalize on his superb dribbling because of a short, lifeless game. His base line on short-game hits (around the field and putt) is between 0.5 and 1.0 strokes per round. Currently, he is hovering just below 0.0. That doesn’t seem like a huge difference, but it did affect his ability to score as a group and therefore his ability to really compete in tournaments.

“It was a good start to the year, the first couple of events of the year,” Rahm said. “I could say, I could say it wasn’t my best, but you know, I’ve been training hard, I feel confident. It’s just golf. Sometimes you feel good. if everything works out, golf is life, in fact, sometimes you don’t get the results you want, i keep working, very positive about the future in. “

Rick Gehman joins Kyle Porter, Jonathan Coachman and Mark Immelman for a preview of the 2022 Mexico Open and discusses the biggest headlines in golf this week. Follow and listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The good news for Rahm is that there is some precedent here. He had an odd period last year where he missed a chance at the Wells Fargo Championship and finished the T34 at Byron Nelson before taking it outright. tear through 2021. His short bout had a bit of a slump in that span, but he closed with a top seven in his next eight events, including the US Open title. there. The only finish outside the top 10 was when he had to withdraw after Round 3 of the Memorial Tournament after testing positive for COVID-19. At the time, he was in the lead by six.

The bad news for Rahm is that he hasn’t experienced such a protracted slump before in his short game. He has stated that his short game numbers look bad because he hit it too well. I want to buy this because I think it helps, but something is wrong because Rahm pops putts at the end of the Genesis Invitational, and then again before the Player Championship. This isn’t a big deal – Rahm swapped clubs shortly before his US Open win last year – but it does show that Rahm isn’t necessarily happy with his placement.

There are many runways for him to figure it out. Most of the major championships are still around, and he hit it as brilliantly as he ever has as a pro. If the short game comes up again and we have several years of reliable evidence to believe it will, then that 9/2 odds will be worth it in the long run when you consider Rahm better. the rest of the field how much.





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