For every like, there is a dislike.
That is true as in fantasy baseball as in any life, and that third is “mine”sleepers” today, today, on the contrary, let’s focus on the players that I’m avoiding in the drafts.
As always with a list like this, all one of the 10 names on this list is a player that I am willing to use this season, for a certain price. Based on what they can deliver in 2023, along with what’s initially mean draft position (ADP) trends — both in ESPN tournaments and off-site — show that each trend is too expensive for my taste.
So let’s see the boys I love Friend ARRIVE draft on your list, so that I don’t have to deal with them.
Tim AndersonSS, Chicago White Sox: I’ve never put much faith in Anderson, which is easier said when you rank for point tournament, rather than rotisserie formats. However, his 2022 has presented a few warning signs for or Format. Anderson has faced multiple injuries, first a groin problem hindering his rotation, followed by surgery to repair a longitudinal bandage tear on his left middle finger that made his season difficult. He finally ended in August. He also showed the minimal recovery rate of the lost Statcast sprint he showed in 2021, his 2022 pace ranks in the division. a modest 76th, while his 0.255 BABIP on touchdown balls — keep in mind that speed is an integral part of his on-court shots — represents two years of thinking. recession and the second lowest figure of his career.
Perhaps Anderson was right in assuming a groin injury was the complete cause of his production decline, but I don’t think he’s worth the asking price so far.
Andres Gimenez2B, Cleveland Guardians: He’s one of baseball’s best quarterbacks in 2022, securing his day-to-day role and having an elite pace that makes the possibility of another 20 heist season. He’ll have a little trouble getting back to the stats line of the second top 10 spinners. With the club, however, most things are fine, most notably the 40-point difference between Gimenez’s batting average (0.297) and Statcast’s. hope batting average (0.257), the fourth widest gap in that direction between qualifying. Plus, his batting stats (36th percentile Statcast hit rate and 33th percentile barrel rate) don’t herald a repeat of his 17 home runs.
He’s a solid pick, arguably the top 100 cameraman of his caliber, but even there he’ll be 2-3 rounds early, and in the scoring tournaments, he He’s more of a midfield midfielder.
Paul Goldschmidt1B, Saint Louis Cardinal: If we’re talking BA-xBA spreads, Goldschmidt’s 56-point league lead (0.317 vs 0.261) is easily the league’s biggest in or and let’s also emphasize that the 52-point gap between his actual wOBA (.419) and the expected wOBA (.367) is also the biggest gap in the league. To be fair, Goldschmidt is an outstanding player, one whose record in the top 50 is unquestionable by any means. However, he will be 23rd overall in either ESPN’s points-based leagues or the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) so far in March, which is too expensive for my taste. a player who saw a lot of things right last year.
Also keep in mind that Goldschmidt’s Statcast sprint speed is also decreasing year over year, to the point where he ranked in the 26th percentile last year, which means that last season’s 7 steals are probably real more economical than his 12 times from 2021 .
Kenley JansenRP, Boston Red Sox: Typical of slow relief pitchers, Jansen’s pacing last season was, according to Statcast, third slowest with empty soles and slowest with sole runners – given the numbers will certainly exceed a few seconds of the new pitching clock. Level. That requires a noticeable adjustment, and considering that Jansen was no longer at top velocity during the 2014-17 season and showed a small decline in both hit and hit rates (as well as exit velocity). medium shadow), which is a legitimate concern.
He’s already got his contract and track record high with over 30 saves, but he’s also 35 years old and is currently facing more questions than some of the other “top 10” RPs. , many of them have electricity, tools to create attacks. Jansen isn’t a top 10 fantasy movie closer to me.
starling birdBELONG TO, New York Mets: His recent history of trauma, coupled with the fact that he is now 34 years old, who derives much imaginary value from his stolen bases, has become a growing concern. . He suffered a five-week rib fracture in 2021, a partial fracture of his right middle finger that cost him almost a month at the end of the 2022 season and the initial major muscle surgery that threatened Open Day status. his 2023 before his early return to action in the Grapefruit Season.
Marte’s sprint, like Goldschmidt’s, is on a downward trend with his three worst speeds coming in the last three seasons. He has also returned a large amount of the contact benefit he displayed during his great 2018-19 season, which is especially problematic for those of us in the leagues. point. He’s still a good building block in rotisserie tournaments, but you’ll probably pay the top 75 picks to get it, which in my estimation is an exorbitant price tag.
Jeremy PenaSS, Houston Astros: He had a Great five rookies, between being the fifth rookie in history with at least 20 home players and 10 bases stolen, while also winning both the American League Championship Series and World Series MVP titles, not to mention proving a more suitable replacement for the free agent is gone Carlos Correa. In fact, Pena’s WAR, 4.9, is almost as high as Correa’s, 5.5! However, there is such a thing as real-life talent that is better than imagined talent, and Pena is likely to qualify as such.
He rotates extremely freely, walks only in 3.9% of appearances, has a worrying ground-to-ground rate of 51.5% after the All-Star break and has a rate of 0.243/.267/ .398 in the next split. Pena still has a lot of work to do at this level, which teams are sure to realize after such a massive rookie campaign. I suggest you take a step back, let him tackle them on your competitor’s list. Check back with him in 2024.
Jordan RomanoRP, Toronto blue jay: Like Jansen, Romano is a bit closer to job security and is probably one of the stronger bets on 30+ saves in this position for those reasons. However, the problem in his case is that 2022 seems to be his peak, he has a big gap in ERA/xERA (1.20 difference) and he has given up so many times. difficult contact. Therefore, he seems to be taking a small step back.
Romano has been the average 4th and 52nd pick in NFBC tournaments through March, however, meaning he is considered one of the best in the position. This. He’s valuable, as you can see from my rating (RP7/107 overall), but he’s not someone I’d rank higher.
Blake SnellSP, Padres San Diego: He has year consecutive seasons had an appearance rate of at least 30%, and his projected 3.19 Statcast last year is almost equal to his 3.15 mark from Cy Young 2018. But that’s it. when all the positives come to an end, as Snell has been held in 107th place, 135th (pandemic year 2020), 128 innings 2/3 and 128 innings for the past four seasons, demonstrating extreme difficulty. high in both staying healthy and getting deep into matches. In those four seasons, he had a total of 25 wins and 28 quality starts, totals in both categories surpassed by the likes of Brad Keller, Eric Lauer, Jordan Lyles, Loi Miley, Little Mike And Martin Perez.
There’s something to be said for Snell’s per-batch fantasy production, but there’s also something to be said for pitchers that provide more volume.
Gleyber Torres2B, New York Yankees: It breaks my heart to put him in here, especially given that he had a personal best with Statcast Barrel (10.7%) and hit rate (45.3%) last season, but Torres increasingly seems like a no-brainer in New York. Anthony Volpethe eye-opening spring has crowded the Yankees’ courtyard, DJ LeMahieu currently fit and in need of a place to play, and Torres himself is rumored to be entering commercial talks by the end of 2022 to secure the right to play.
Without a fixed position to play in every day, Torres’ fantasy appeal suffers – a problem for a player who broke into the top 10 last season. If he does trade, it’s important to note that he has a 59 point higher career OPS at Yankee Stadium than he does on the road and a 1.3% higher HR there than he does on the road.
Julio UriasSP, Dodgers Los Angeles: As a member of last year’s list, Urias’ true ERA (2.16) beat Statcast’s expected ERA (2.81) for the fourth consecutive season in 2022, so it’s up. Of course he’s proven to do it again, hasn’t he? Yes, maybe. Yes, he is one of the better pitchers in baseball at limiting the impact. However, Urias’ tendency to “spin and miss” is on average less than a number of similar arms wrapped around him, as the rate of 12.4% of his swing shots over the past two seasons just slightly above the league average, so is he. has shadow delivery (40.0% GB, 28.5% FB rate last year) which inspires confidence should he lose any of his orders.
Also, the Dodgers actually dropped his play totals last year, making it questionable whether he’ll ever be trusted with the 200 frame campaign. Urias is a very, very good pitcher, but to me, he’s not the top 15 starter in fantasy, despite the fact that he’s often ranked or picked as one.
